Trump’s clear path to securing US oil and gas dominance

President Donald Trump can take a surprising turn to secure US dominance in global oil and gas markets while weakening Russia, a key competitor in both natural gas and oil. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, Europe has reduced its reliance on Russian energy imports in favor of US supply. This is particularly true with respect to US liquefied natural gas (LNG), with over half of US exports currently heading to Europe. Nonetheless, Europe risks returning to Russian energy without additional US action, making further efforts to limit Russian natural gas in Europe a key strategy for empowering a crucial engine of US economic growth.

While US LNG export capacity is set to double by 2028, world LNG markets will potentially be oversupplied as soon as 2026. Accordingly, maintaining US competitiveness in the sector requires deploying an abundance of policy and regulatory tools. In addition to lifting the Biden administration’s pause on the authorization of US LNG export infrastructure, the Trump administration should maintain and strengthen sanctions against Russian energy while expanding US global oil exports and increasing US gas shipments to Europe. If these actions are taken, Russia’s already delicate position will weaken, strengthening US leverage in any future negotiations, stabilizing prices, and potentially delivering a favorable end to the war in Ukraine.

The United States and Russia compete in energy markets, particularly natural gas, with Europe as the primary battleground. Driven by Europe’s rejection of Russian energy following the country’s invasion of Ukraine, US LNG exports to Europe surged by over 3,700 percent from 2017 to nearly 7.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2023. US LNG shipments to Europe will likely increase further with the recent cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, and even more so if the European Union achieves its stated goal of weaning itself fully off Russian LNG by 2027.

Trump can help achieve US energy dominance by strengthening sanctions on the Russian energy sector.

While Asian demand is rising, Europe remains the primary market for US LNG. High costs from long distances and from Panama Canal fees limit Gulf Coast LNG competitiveness in Asia compared with Qatari and Australian producers. In contrast, US shipments to Europe travel shorter distances than Asia-bound cargoes and avoid fees for transiting the Panama Canal. Additionally, unlike shipments from Qatar and Australia, US cargoes do not face potential chokepoints in the Red Sea, as illustrated by the Houthis’ efforts to block passage in the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal. 

Importantly, a significant return of Russian gas to Europe would severely harm US LNG exporters and Trump’s “America First” agenda. Projections suggest there could be a global LNG glut later this decade if all planned projects are completed. Furthermore, the resumption of significant Russian gas flows to Europe, though seemingly unlikely at present, would put pressure on US LNG exporters. While some LNG exporters are protected by take-or-pay contracts, others rely heavily on spot markets and could be severely affected if Russia reclaims market share at their expense. 

US-Russia competition does not end in natural gas markets, however.

The United States and Russia are also rivals in oil markets. US crude exports have grown from 700,000 barrels per day in January 2017 to 4 million today. Since February 2022, US crude exports to Europe have increased by 800,000 barrels per day, helping to displace Russian production that was cut off as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With US liquid fuels consumption projected to decline by 2026 and domestic gasoline demand already peaking, US oil and gas exporters will increasingly rely on external markets, intensifying competition with Russian producers.

Russia isn’t standing still in the competition: Moscow is considering merging its three largest oil companies into a mega producer. 

Strengthening sanctions on Russian oil and gas now will not only benefit US companies. It will also give Trump more negotiating leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian war machine is quickly running out of money. One recent study by Craig Kennedy of Harvard University finds that surging but under-the-radar borrowing in Russia is squeezing borrowers in Russia’s private sector. Kennedy reports a 71 percent surge in Russian corporate debt since the middle of 2022, fueling inflation, interest rate hikes, and a potential credit crisis. Accordingly, Russia’s total war costs far exceed what’s reported in official budget expenditures—and its corporations are the ones paying the price. With Gazprom at risk of becoming overindebted, there is a heightened likelihood that Russia’s pipeline export monopolist is permanently scarred because of the war in Ukraine. 

The United States should seize on this moment to ensure long-term US LNG exports to Europe permanently replace Russian natural gas flows. Indeed, Trump can help achieve US energy dominance by strengthening sanctions on the Russian energy sector—reducing Russian export earnings, deepening European energy ties with the United States, and, importantly, creating more leverage over Moscow in future negotiations over Ukraine. 

As leaders including Trump often note, peace is achieved through strength. Securing a favorable deal with Russia demands leveraging US power effectively.


Richard L. Morningstar is the founding chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and served as US ambassador to the European Union and Azerbaijan. 

Landon Derentz served as the director for energy in the National Security Council at the White House from 2018 to 2019 and is the senior director at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

This article reflects their own personal opinions.

Further reading

Image: The LNG Tanker FSRU Toscana arrives at the French Mediterranean port of Marseille.