Trump’s out-of-the-box approach is perfect to help demilitarize Kaliningrad

In his second term, US President Donald Trump has displayed a talent for bringing attention to often overlooked issues in international affairs. In his first two weeks back in office, Trump has set a spotlight on the security and future of Greenland in the context of the geopolitical race among the United States, China, and Russia over influence in the Arctic, for example. But there’s another territory awaiting Trump’s and the democratic world’s attention: the Russian exclave territory of Kaliningrad. In line with its ambitious, out-of-the-box thinking, the Trump administration should seek out a deal to demilitarize Kaliningrad and perhaps even return it to the European family of states.

Kaliningrad is a highly militarized Russian territory sandwiched between the Baltic Sea, Poland, and Lithuania—an “island” in the middle of NATO and the European Union (EU) separated from the Russian mainland by some four hundred miles. It houses the Russian Baltic Fleet, Russian armed forces, and, reportedly, tactical nuclear weapons. Kaliningrad (formerly the German city of Königsberg) came into Soviet possession during World War II and was named after the Russian Bolshevik and Soviet leader Mikhail Kalinin, even though there is no record of him ever stepping foot in the territory. After the ouster or killing of its original German inhabitants in the aftermath of World War II and the arrival of mainly ethnic Russians, it has remained under Moscow’s rule ever since.

Kaliningrad’s neighboring European countries would welcome a solution for it due to security, cultural, and historical concerns. Königsberg was German for 684 years prior to being approved as a Soviet war prize by the Allies in the Potsdam Conference in 1945. Prior to that, Königsberg was part of the historic Duchy of Prussia, a Polish vassal state that existed from 1525 until 1701. The Polish population was sizable prior to World War II, living among a multicultural German, Lithuanian, and Jewish community. Neighboring Lithuania also has deep ethnic and cultural ties to the territory dating back hundreds of years.

Today, there are security concerns over Russian rail transit that passes through Lithuania on its way to Kaliningrad, with recent incidents of Russian trains carrying provocative signs or military goods. There are also concerns that Russia could launch a military operation from Kaliningrad and Belarus on the Suwałki Gap—a land corridor that runs along the border of Lithuania and Poland—with the aim of cutting off Lithuania from its NATO allies. 

None of Kaliningrad’s neighboring countries have expressed any serious territorial claims to the region. However, over the decades, several discussions have taken place and secret deals have been proposed to solve the Kaliningrad question. Since the 1990s, the Soviet and subsequent Russian government had rumored discussions with Berlin regarding a proposal to return the territory to Germany in exchange for debt relief. However, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany was more interested in reunification and the reintegration of East Germany than Königsberg.

The lack of European countries’ designs on Kaliningrad has not stopped Russia from issuing threats over the territory. In January, Russia accused Lithuania of having “territorial claims” over Kaliningrad when Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda commented that “Karaliaučius will never become Kaliningrad” referring to the Lithuanian historic name for the region and its ties to Lithuanian culture. The Lithuanian president’s comment came after the Russian authorities renamed a museum originally dedicated to Kristijonas Donelaitis, a founding father of Lithuanian literature who worked in the region in the eighteenth century. However, Vilnius has no claim to the territory. Even back in the 1950s, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev offered to incorporate Kaliningrad into Soviet Lithuania, Vilnius refused, cautious of integrating a territory of Russian speakers.

With a population of less than one million people, most of whom are Russian speakers, and an underdeveloped and isolated economy, the best solution for the region would be either an independent or autonomous, demilitarized status. A demilitarized Kaliningrad is not as unlikely as it seems. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow redeployed some of its S-400 missile systems from Kaliningrad. After Ukraine’s offensive on Russia’s Kursk region, many of the exclave’s Russian troops were removed from Kaliningrad to Ukrainian frontlines. 

When, if, and how Russian troops would return to Kaliningrad could be a negotiation topic between the Trump administration, the EU, and NATO on one hand and Russia on the other. An independent Kaliningrad—perhaps even returning to its historic name of Königsberg—could increase economic ties with Europe and seek investment from the EU. This is a long-standing though unfulfilled goal since the 2000s, when the EU promoted several programs to increase European economic ties with and investment in the region.

There should be no illusions that Russia will be readily willing to demilitarize Kaliningrad or, even more so, to allow the independence of Königsberg. However, much will depend on Russia's strength when the war in Ukraine ends. Depending on how weakened and overstretched the Russian military becomes, as well as how much further diplomatically isolated the Kremlin finds itself, it may become increasingly difficult for the Russian government to maintain its string of captured territories. This list includes the Soviet war prizes of Kaliningrad and the Kuril Islands, Ukraine's Crimea and Donbas, Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Moldova’s Transnistria. However, all of these territories and their future are potential subjects for negotiation for the Trump administration, NATO, and the EU. 

Trump has already demonstrated that he wants to pursue new ideas in US foreign policy. Negotiating the future of Kaliningrad is one such idea ripe for the administration’s attention. Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine should also consider European security in the war’s aftermath—and this should include removing the threat that Russia’s control over Kaliningrad poses to the continent. A settlement that brought about a demilitarized and potentially even an autonomous or independent Kaliningrad would go a long way toward ensuring Europe’s long-term security. 


Agnia Grigas is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and the author of Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire and other books.

Further reading

Image: Russian paratroopers line up before boarding an Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane as they take part in the military exercises "Zapad-2021" staged by the armed forces of Russia and Belarus at an aerodrome in Kaliningrad Region, Russia, September 13, 2021. REUTERS/Vitaly Nevar