Since taking office in 2000, Russian President Vladimir Putin has transformed the country’s Victory Day celebrations into the most important holiday of the year. During the Soviet era, Victory Day had been a solemn occasion marking the defeat of Nazi Germany, with only four military parades held between 1945 and the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Under Putin, the Victory Day parade has become an annual affair that dominates the Kremlin calendar and is used to demonstrate modern Russia’s resurgence as a major military power.
This helps explain why last week’s muted celebrations in Moscow attracted so much international attention. Unlike previous years, the 2026 parade was dramatically scaled down and featured no military hardware at all amid reports of concerns about possible Ukrainian drone strikes. The downgraded holiday was preceded by days of wrangling over a possible Victory Day ceasefire, with Putin seeking US President Donald Trump’s help to secure Kyiv’s backing for a temporary pause in hostilities.
Most international media coverage of this year’s Victory Day parade reached the same conclusion: An event that was meant to project Russian strength had instead highlighted Putin’s weakness. However, this optimistic Western framing may be masking a far grimmer reality.
While the Kremlin dictator is clearly in a weakened position, a diminished Vladimir Putin could be more dangerous than ever. As the prospect of a conventional victory in his war against Ukraine continues to recede, Putin is now doubling down on a hard line strategy of attrition in Ukraine, repression on the home front, and escalating hybrid aggression across Europe.
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The absence of tanks on Red Square for the first time since 2007 came at a time when the Russian military is struggling to live up to its lofty reputation. Putin’s army in Ukraine has barely advanced in recent months, and actually lost ground in April. With Ukraine’s increasingly formidable drone-based defenses reducing the prospect of any major front line breakthroughs, many are now questioning whether Putin still has a pathway to achieving the maximalist goals of his invasion.
Despite this gloomy military outlook, there is no sign that Putin is ready for any real compromises. While he indicated last weekend that the invasion of Ukraine may be moving toward some kind of conclusion, his suggestion of Kremlin-friendly former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as a possible mediator in talks between Russia and Europe pointed to a lack of genuine interest in progress toward peace.
Instead, battlefield stagnation has led to mounting attacks on Ukraine’s cities and civilian infrastructure. Throughout the past winter, Russia conducted a large-scale bombing offensive designed to deprive millions of Ukrainians of light, heating, and water amid subzero temperatures. Attacks have continued into the spring season, with Ukraine’s railway network and port infrastructure also targeted with growing frequency.
In parallel, the bombardment of the Ukrainian population has continued to intensify, leading to a spike in the number of civilian dead and wounded, according to United Nations data. With little hope of defeating Ukraine on the battlefield, Putin is now attempting to break Ukrainian resistance by demoralizing and depopulating the country.
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Putin’s escalating aggression is not confined to Ukraine. There are also indications that Moscow is increasing hybrid warfare operations across Europe. Recent incidents have included a suspected Russian cyberattack on a power plant serving half a million Poles. Meanwhile, Swedish officials have warned of a surge in hostile Russian cyber activity aimed at disrupting critical European infrastructure, including a recently thwarted attempt to target the country’s thermal power networks.
Beyond the digital domain, the past year has witnessed a sharp rise in suspected Russian drones penetrating European airspace and flying close to strategically sensitive sites. There are growing reports of an increase in targeted killings tied to Russia. A series of assassination plots have been uncovered targeting politicians, activists, and supporters of Ukraine in European countries including Lithuania, France, Germany, Spain, and Poland. The Kremlin is also accused of recruiting people online in order to carry out acts of sabotage across Europe.
As Putin ramps up attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population and escalates Moscow’s hybrid war against Europe, he is tightening repressive measures inside Russia itself. This has included efforts to restrict internet access and establish Kremlin control over the online information space. Popular messenger platform Telegram has been one of the Kremlin’s principle targets, sparking vocal complaints in most major cities and among troops fighting on the front lines in Ukraine.
Putin’s readiness to threaten the informal communications infrastructure of his own army underlines his commitment to shutting down debate in the country. Clearly, his current priority is to prevent the spread of uncontrolled information via apps like Telegram. This suggests a dictator who is no longer confident in his own position and is preparing for a possible rise in public discontent.
Western observers were correct to see the hollowed-out pageantry on Red Square as a failure. Putin’s decision to drastically scale back this year’s parade and his inability to secure Moscow’s airspace without a US-brokered ceasefire were very public humiliations for the Kremlin strongman. At the same time, it would be foolish to exaggerate his vulnerability or to expect any dramatic changes in Moscow.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is clearly not going to plan, but stopping now would mean admitting defeat in a war that will define his entire reign. Rather than seeking peace, Putin is far more likely to escalate further. Western leaders must therefore be ready for a dangerous new phase in their confrontation with the Kremlin.
Maksym Beznosiuk is a strategic policy analyst whose work focuses on Russia, Ukraine, and international security. He is an associate fellow at GLOBSEC. William Dixon is a senior associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute and an associate fellow at GLOBSEC. He specializes in cyber and international security issues.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a ceremony to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier by the Kremlin wall in central Moscow, Russia. May 9, 2026.(ALEXANDER NEMENOV/Pool via REUTERS)