Reality CheckJul 22, 2022
Reality Check #13: Great-power competition threatens climate disaster response
By Evan Cooper and Alec Evans
Today’s military planners must contend with two potentially conflicting demands: growing requirements for the US military to respond to climate-driven disasters and the effort to restructure the force for great-power competition.
Reality CheckMay 17, 2022
Reality Check #12 — Russia, the West, and the rest: The hard choices the US must make to reinforce its global leadership
By Ferial Saeed
Washington needs to make hard choices now to blunt the global consequences of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions regime while delivering a decisive strategic setback to Russian President Vladimir Putin necessary to reinforce US global leadership.
Reality CheckFeb 18, 2022
Reality Check #10: China will not invade Taiwan
By Harlan Ullman
Key points Despite Beijing’s longstanding desire to invade and conquer Taiwan and achieve “one China,” China simply lacks the military capability and capacity to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan for the foreseeable future. With a potential defending force of 450,000 Taiwanese today, using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders taught at […]
Reality CheckAug 4, 2021
Reality Check #9: Ensure US security sector assistance serves US interests and values
By Aude Darnal, Evan Cooper
The United States must review its security sector assistance strategy, which frequently assist security forces that commit abuses against the people they are supposed to be serving, contradicting the United State's espoused mission to promote human rights and democracy.
Reality CheckJun 24, 2021
Reality Check #8: Rethinking US military policy in the Greater Middle East
By Robert A. Manning, Christopher Preble
The core assumptions underpinning US policy in the Middle East—ensuring oil flows, maintaining Israel’s security, preventing the rise of a dominant hegemon, and countering terrorism—have been upended by new realities.
Reality CheckJun 14, 2021
Reality Check #7: Red-teaming the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance
By Emma Ashford
The Biden administration has released an Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG), a stepping-stone to a full National Security Strategy (NSS). Although this document presents a more realistic vision of the world than the Trump administration’s NSS did, the INSSG still contains some questionable assumptions.
Reality CheckMay 14, 2021
Reality Check #6: The consequences of an ‘America First’ vaccine policy
By Evan Cooper, Mathew Burrows
The Biden administration has been slow to distribute surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to countries in need or to facilitate foreign manufacturing of vaccines, squandering a diplomatic opportunity and potentially endangering US security.
Reality CheckApr 26, 2021
Reality Check #5: Learning to live with a nuclear North Korea
By Robert A. Manning
North Korea's nuclear program is firmly established. Living with a de facto nuclear North Korea may be the least-bad option for now, requiring continued pressure and stronger deterrence measures.
Reality CheckMar 5, 2021
Reality Check #4: Focus on interests, not on human rights with Russia
By Emma Ashford, Mathew Burrows
The Biden administration should seek to build a less aspirational policy toward Russia, minimize the use of sanctions, and look for incentives that might induce Moscow to take steps in line with US interests.