Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reverberated around the world, challenging many preconceived notions about Russia and the global order. Moscow’s war has sparked debate about the future of Ukraine, NATO, and Western institutions, but also requires a renewed understanding of the continued threat posed by a revanchist Kremlin. To respond to the specter of continued Russian aggression, it is essential to take stock of how Russia looks and interacts with the world today and how it might change—or not—in the future.

A new paper series from the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center seeks to reevaluate our understanding of Russia in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The first paper of this series, from author Casey Michel, explores what five paths Russia’s future might take. The paper examines possible future developments in Russia, their respective likelihoods, and how Western policymakers should prepare for each scenario.