Please join the Scowcroft Center’sForward Defense program for a public conversation on, “The Near Crisis Project: Why What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You” on Friday, January 27, 2022 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. ET in person and via Zoom. This event will feature a panel of distinguished speakers from the research team of the University of Utah’s Near Crisis Project followed by a moderated discussion. Register by clicking the button above.

Why do some near-crises escalate to crises and others defuse? How can policy makers in Washington DC and beyond manage the risk of escalation? And how can the United States and its allies predict when a crisis could—or will—occur? In a new research initiative, a multi-university team advance the concept of ‘near crisis.’ When there is a perceived threat to basic values and a finite time to respond (though no large-scale military hostilities for the moment), the dispute has not yet tipped into a full-blown crisis. At a time when the United States and its allies are faced with Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, an increasingly aggressive China, and North Korea’s launch of missiles over Japan, these researchers provide new tools and insights to help policymakers identify and de-escalate potential flashpoints around the globe. By studying the crises of the past, this research team identifies potential crises and paints a broader picture of the full escalation cycle. On January 27, we will discuss how different tools of national power—from hybrid warfare to economic and diplomatic sanctions—can help defuse near crises before they escalate and threaten the rules-based international order.

We hope you can join us for what promises to be an important and timely discussion. To register to attend in person or receive the virtual Zoom link, please click the button above or complete the form below.

A panel discussion featuring

Scott Silverstone

Professor of International Relations, Department of Social Sciences, United States Military Academy at West Point

Sonya Finley

Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College

Thomas F. Lynch III

Distinguished Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Research at the Institute of National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Brian Babcock-Lumish

Director of the General David H. Petraeus Center for Emerging Leaders, Institute for the Study of War

Lance Hampton Director for Strategy, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy & Force Development, Department of Defense

Moderated by

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.