Present without impact? How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement
In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “Present without impact? How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement,” Jonathan Fulton argues that despite economic advancements and high-profile diplomatic engagements, China’s influence remains largely economic rather than political. Middle Eastern perceptions of China vary; it is seen as a cautious, transactional actor with limited capacity for addressing key regional conflicts and security concerns. Fulton adds that while Iran views China as a crucial partner, Gulf states leverage their ties with Beijing to maintain strategic flexibility.
Fulton conducted extensive interviews with regional experts, which highlighted skepticism regarding China’s willingness and ability to assume a more influential political role. Fulton argues that economic pragmatism drives ongoing partnerships, but China is not yet considered a key regional political or security player.
Fulton argues that China is viewed more favorably in Middle Eastern countries than in Western countries. That said, it was not described as a benevolent regional actor in any of the conversations conducted for this issue brief. Most analysts believe China’s political and security role will remain minimal in the near term, although its economic importance will continue to grow, driven by infrastructure investments and trade partnerships. This underscores the widespread view of China as a limited regional actor.
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The Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative (SMESI) provides policymakers fresh insights into core US national security interests by leveraging its expertise, networks, and on-the-ground programs to develop unique and holistic assessments on the future of the most pressing strategic, political, and security challenges and opportunities in the Middle East.
Image: China's President Xi Jinping (C) talks with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (L) at the opening of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 15, 2022. BAY ISMOYO/Pool via REUTERS