On July 16, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Director Barry Pavel revisits in the New Voice of Ukraine his four different scenarios on how the war in Ukraine might end. Pavel suggests how they might be amended in light of new developments in Ukraine.

Foresight is a strategic exercise that requires returning to the original evidence; the assumptions and scenarios should be modified in accordance with actual events.

Barry Pavel

Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.

The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

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