On September 26, Forward Defense senior fellow Robert Soofer coauthored a piece in RealClearDefense along with Dr. Keith Payne, Dr. John Harvey, and the Hon. Franklin Miller. Soofer and co-authors discussed the longstanding decision of the United States to reject the strategy of intentionally targeting cities and civilian populations in the event of a nuclear conflict. They argued that the United States should avoid these “counter-city” deterrent strategies, even as the United States will likely soon face two near-peer nuclear powers, Russia and China. Instead, the authors suggest, the United States should continue to pursue a deterrent which avoids civilian populations to the extent practicable and focuses on targeting the military capabilities and tools of power of authoritarian regimes.
With the addition of China to the familiar U.S.-Russian deterrence dynamic, the new ‘tripolar’ threat environment is significantly different from the Cold War bipolar context. But the critical advantages of a counterforce/city avoidance-oriented deterrent remain, as do the severe failings of intentionally targeting population.
Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.
