In Anna Wieslander’s opening speech of the M100 Sanssouci Colloquium in Potsdam, on September 12, she warned that the West is underestimating the Russian threat, including hybrid, and called for a new recipe for peace and prosperity in Europe, with solid defense as the foundation, not an add-on.

Wieslander’s main points:

  1. 1. Russia is not a local problem. Russia is a systemic threat with ambitions to change the international system to its favor.
  2. 2. Russia does not compare itself to regional powers such as Germany and France, but to the US and China, the other potential poles of an emerging multipolar system, which Russia strives for.
  • 3. Even if Russia’s war on Ukraine would end, that will not be the end of Russia’s ambitions internationally. 
  • 4. To compensate for its economic weakness (GDP less than Canada or Italy) Russia aggressively uses its modernized military power, hybrid warfare, nuclear rattling and alignment with China.
  • 5. A systemic threat like Russia, that strives for greater political power and territory, cannot be stopped by inaction or appeasement. It has to be actively balanced by other great powers.
  • 6. Therefore, Europe must realize that future prosperity will not come unless it makes solid and longterm investments in resilience and defense.
  • 7. As of now, after a decade of intense hybrid warfare against the West and its war on Ukraine, Russia is not deterred.
  • 8. Apart from solid defense spending at the level of 3% of GDP, with an additional 0.25 %yearly on military support to Ukraine, Europe must focus much more on deterrence against hybrid warfare.
  • 9. Russia is linking its hybrid warfare between domains, such as desinformation, cyberattacks, political subversion, espionage, sabotage and economic coersion.
  • 10. Therefore, Europe must develop tactics to respond across domains.
  • 11. A new European security order will have to balance against Russia, not attempting to include it as a trusted partner.

Further reading

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