In-depth research and reports

As Ankara rethinks its Libyan policy, the Haftar family stands to gain

By Karim Mezran, Alissa Pavia

Libya remains mired in a protracted civil conflict that has divided the country between rival factions. Ankara, which had strongly backed one side, recently modified its foreign policy.

Air defense in the age of saturation: Europe after the post-Cold War peace dividend illusion and Turkey’s Steel Dome

By Can Kasapoğlu

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved the importance of air and missile defense, Ankara's Steel Dome initiative can demonstrate a critical solution.

Ankara and Washington can build on recent groundwork to improve relations and stability

By Murat Yeşiltaş

The US-Turkey relationship can progress not only through crisis-producing issues but also through crisis-preventing areas of agreement.

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?

New START might be dead, but legally binding arms control isn’t

By Michael Albertson

Who killed New START? Moscow and Beijing's behavior is mostly to blame—but an arms control community that privileged the aspirational and performative over substantive measures didn't help.

Expanding transmission infrastructure to achieve low-cost, reliable, and abundant energy

By Ken Berlin, Frank Willey

With demand for electricity rising, the United States needs a long-term strategy to expand the power grid and improve energy reliability and affordability.

Turkey’s gas diversification strategy and rising share of LNG

By Eser Özdil

An analysis of Turkey's LNG diversification strategy from 2016 to 2025 and the geopolitical implications of Turkey’s emergence as a gas exporter to Europe.

One month in, can Honduras’ new president put the country on the path to lasting economic gains?

By María Fernanda Bozmoski, Isabella Palacios

President Nasry Asfura’s early reforms have signaled a focus on fiscal austerity and competitiveness, sending positive messages to investors and to President Donald Trump, who backed him during the campaign. Sustaining this momentum will require significant structural reforms.

The state of great power competition in the Gulf

By Jonathan Fulton

This issue brief examines Gulf states' strategic positioning amid shifting global power dynamics, the opportunities and challenges of great power competition, and regional efforts toward de-escalation and development.

Standardizing carbon accounting worldwide with a single, robust, cost-effective system

By Vincent Aussilloux, Yann Coatanlem, and Karthik Ramanna

Carbon accounting has the potential to accelerate decarbonization, improve energy resilience, and strengthen economic security. But first, countries must decide on a robust, standardized system.

When growth outpaces accountability, volatility follows in the Philippines

By Cesi Cruz

Economic growth in the Philippines has largely taken place in the absence of sustained political stability. Political rights and accountability swing sharply with changes in leadership. The task ahead is to ensure that economic progress deepens democratic accountability.

Tunisia needs both bread and freedom

By Ameni Mehrez

Tunisia was one of the Arab Spring's success stories, with dramatic increases in political freedom after the 2011 uprising. Fifteen years on, the country's experience shows how intertwined freedom and prosperity are. With economic opportunity not matching the increases in political voice, frustration and unrest has followed.

Four options for arms control after New START

By Amy Woolf

With the last quantitative limit on the world's largest nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington finds itself in a new and uncertain era, with less clarity about Russia’s nuclear forces, plans to upgrade its own, and growing concern about China's. The best option may be trilateral talks—but not about a new arms control treaty.

A strategic asset: Leveraging special security agreements for defense innovation

By Rob Murray

In a world where technological dominance defines military superiority, the United States must use every available tool to stay ahead. Special security agreements are one such tool. Here are the best ways to leverage these agreements and the pathfinder projects Washington should pursue to tackle critical defense challenges.

Negotiating with Putin’s Russia

By Donald N. Jensen, Iuliia Osmolovska

The latest report in the Atlantic Council's Russia Tomorrow examines Russia’s negotiating tactics and how the US can adjust its diplomatic strategies in turn.

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

A year into its post-Assad era, Syria needs a ‘rules-first’ reset

By Ibrahim Al-Assil

In Syria, relief coexists with unease about what comes next. How can Ahmed al-Sharaa restore a state devastated by a quarter century of authoritarianism, corruption, and civil war? Building a government and economy that work for all Syrians is the only way forward.

Mining corridors as catalysts: Building on the Lobito model

By Aubrey Hruby

The financing approach and public-private cooperation used to build the Lobito transportation corridor offers a playbook for the US and African governments and investors as they seek to tap Africa's critical mineral wealth.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.