In-depth research and reports

Putin’s Mediterranean gambit: Endgame unclear

By Mark N. Katz

For more than 250 years, Russian leaders have sought to project power and influence in the Mediterranean region. Sometimes these efforts have met with a significant degree of success. At times, though, Russia has pulled back from the Mediterranean because of setbacks in the region, events in Europe, or convulsions inside Russia. These pullbacks, however, have never been permanent and have always been followed by renewed Russian efforts to gain influence in the region.

The downsides of downsizing: Why the United States needs four hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

The United States is at a nuclear modernization crossroads. Critics of the land leg of the nuclear triad believe that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force of 300 missiles will be cheaper and more stable than a force of 400. This issue brief shows that 400 ICBMs support the goals of US nuclear deterrence and are affordable.

Broken trust: Lessons from Sunburst

By Trey Herr, Will Loomis, Emma Schroeder, Stewart Scott, Simon Handler, and Tianjiu Zuo

The story of trust is an old one, but the Sunburst cyber-espionage campaign was a startling reminder of the United States’ collective cyber insecurity and the inadequacy of current US strategy to compete in a dynamic intelligence contest in cyberspace.

The China plan: A transatlantic blueprint for strategic competition

By Hans Binnendijk, Sarah Kirchberger, James Danoy, Franklin D. Kramer, Connor McPartland, Christopher Skaluba, Clementine G. Starling, Didi Kirsten Tatlow

China presents the United States and its partners with the most serious set of challenges they have faced since the Cold War. To manage this challenge, transatlantic nations need a blueprint to build a common approach.

Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq

By Dr. Oula Kadhum

In a new report, Dr. Oula Kadhum explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein.

COVID-19 Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Partnership Strategy for the Biden Administration

By Jason Marczak and Cristina Guevara

The United States has the opportunity to position itself as the most important partner for its neighbors by supporting the region’s sustainable and inclusive recovery.

Europe’s geostrategic sovereignty and Turkey

By Bahadır Kaleağası

A more positive relationship between the European Union and Turkey is a decade-long project of advocates from all over Europe and across the Atlantic. Drawing on history, witnesses see how this relationship can be an excellent win-win algorithm, as much as it can rapidly turn out to be a lose-lose situation or even a triple win-or-lose equation—with political, economic, and social resonance reaching far beyond the Continent.

NATO partnerships for Women, Peace, and Security

By Lisa Aronsson

Lisa A. Aronsson outlines the achievements and the implementation challenges NATO faces, and offers three sets of recommendations for overcoming institutional hurdles, leveraging non-NATO members, and reviving NATO’s sense of purpose on the Women, Peace, and Security agenda.

Biden and Ukraine: A strategy for the new administration

By Anders Åslund, Daniel Fried, Melinda Haring, John E. Herbst, William B. Taylor, Alexander Vershbow

The United States has been an essential partner for Ukraine since the Kremlin’s invasion in 2014. Now that Joe Biden has taken office, he has a real chance to move past the difficult detour that US-Ukraine relations took under his predecessor.

Assumption #2: Strategies of coercion are effective

By Erica Borghard

Policymakers should cultivate more realistic expectations about the likelihood that their coercive threats will work as intended, evaluate their full costs against their potential benefits, and invest more in deterrence and defense.

It’s time to get serious about a pressure strategy to contain North Korea

By Andrea R. Mihailescu

A Biden administration North Korea Strategy should continue dialogue with Kim’s government, backed by a variety of pressure and enforcement tactics, in order to strive for the goal of arms reduction.

New Atlantic Council poll: Insights on Venezuelan and Cuban American sentiments regarding US policy toward Venezuela

By Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center

Venezuelan-American and Cuban-American voters support an alternative policy approach that places the alleviation of human suffering at the core of US efforts.

The Long Fuse: Misinformation and the 2020 Election

The executive summary of the Election Integrity Partnership’s collaborative report, “The Long Fuse: Misinformation and the 2020 Election.”

Advancing US-ROK cooperation on nuclear energy

By Stephen S. Greene

Although nuclear power is a key component in US and South Korean electricity generation, the nuclear energy industry in both countries is struggling. Research and development, bilateral trade, and the sale of nuclear energy technologies to third countries represent opportunities for bilateral cooperation that will strengthen both country’s nuclear energy industries.

Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance

By Barry Pavel, Miyeon Oh, Robert Dohner, Alexander Vershbow, Markus Garlauskas, Todd Rosenblum

In a rapidly changing environment, the US and ROK must develop an integrated strategic vision for security in the Indo-Pacific, innovative approaches to denuclearization, and responses to a rising China.

A primer on the proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities

By Winnona DeSombre, Michele Campobasso, Dr. Luca Allodi, Dr. James Shires, JD Work, Robert Morgus, Patrick Howell O’Neill, and Dr. Trey Herr

Offensive cyber capabilities run the gamut from sophisticated, long-term disruptions of physical infrastructure to malware used to target human rights journalists. As these capabilities continue to proliferate with increasing complexity and to new types of actors, the imperative to slow and counter their spread only strengthens.

Countering cyber proliferation: Zeroing in on Access-as-a-Service

By Winnona DeSombre, James Shires, JD Work, Robert Morgus, Patrick Howell O’Neill, Luca Allodi, and Trey Herr

The proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities (OCC) presents an expanding set of risks to states and challenges commitments to protect openness, security, and stability in cyberspace. Access as a Service firms offer various forms of “access” to target data or systems, and through these business practices are creating and selling OCC at an alarming rate. It is imperative that governments reevaluate their approach to countering the proliferation of OCC.

Delist or not delist: A $2.2 trillion US-China auditing dispute

By Jeremy Mark

The economic and financial forces set in motion by the COVID-10 pandemic—global recession and ultra-loose monetary policies that have driven a cross-border search for higher yield—have contributed to a slow shift of international capital toward China’s markets. Now, intensified US-China tensions—especially the targeting of Chinese companies for delisting from US stock markets—have the potential to heighten that trend.

Russia after Putin: How to rebuild the state

By Anders Åslund and Leonid Gozman

We do not know when and how President Putin’s regime will end, but there are signs that it is struggling and the end could come in the foreseeable future. We need to start discussing now how a new state should be built on the ruins of the old system.

The North Atlantic community renewed: Challenges, trends, and solutions

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

With 900 million people and $1 trillion in defense spending, the United States and Europe represent by far the largest, oldest, and most capable economic and security community in the world.