Climate profile: Libya

Climate change has exacerbated deadly floods worldwide and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is no different. The devastating floods that struck eastern Libya last week have claimed a minimum of 5,300 lives up to date.

Storm Daniel caused the floods as it moved southward into Libya. The storm has earned the label of ‘the deadliest storm’ on a global scale, surpassing even Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which claimed the lives of 7,354 people in the Philippines. The casualties resulting from Daniel have also exceeded those of the 1927 floods in Algeria, where 3,000 people lost their lives. These statistics are based on data from the international disaster database (EM-DAT), which also identifies Daniel as the deadliest storm in Africa since 1900.

The most severe flooding event caused by Storm Daniel occurred in the port city of Derna, with a population of over 90,000. This was primarily due to the Derna and Abu Mansur dams deteriorating condition—both approximately half a century old. As a result, a massive surge of water flooded through the town along the Wadi Derna, carving a path about 320 feet wide. This deluge inundated certain structures and led to the collapse of others.

The Libya floods have been a wake-up call for the dangers of climate change in the country and the wider MENA region. Similar to the broader North African region, Libya is currently witnessing rising sea levels, shoreline erosion, floods, elevated temperatures, and escalating drought conditions.

Amid Libya’s rapidly changing political landscape, which garners significant domestic and international focus, there are also pressing climate change-related risks that require policymakers’ attention. Specifically, three risks stand out as potentially existential threats to the nation: (1) the economic repercussions of reaching peak oil, (2) the looming threat of depleting freshwater sources, and (3) the reaching of an alarming level of food insecurity.

Increasing temperatures

Libya is situated in the southern Mediterranean, an area highly susceptible to climate change impacts due to the Mediterranean’s relatively shallow nature, encircled by substantial land masses. While global temperatures had already risen by 1.02°C above pre-industrial levels, by 2020—compared to 1880—the southern Mediterranean region experienced a more pronounced increase of 1.5°C, as per the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 2021 numbers.

This accelerated warming trend is expected to persist, with temperatures potentially rising by 2.2°C by 2040 and possibly reaching approximately 4°C by the end of the century, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 projections.

Water scarcity and food insecurity

Described as one of the most arid countries in the world, Libya is confronted with a substantial shortage of water, as highlighted by a 2019 research report conducted by the Water Resources Institute, which identified it as the sixth most water-stressed nation globally.

Overall, Libya primarily relies on the Multi-Municipal Reservoir (MMR) for its freshwater supply, storing ancient fossil water in extensive open reservoirs beyond urban areas. The Man-Made River Project, supplying approximately 60 percent of Libya’s freshwater requirements, taps into non-renewable aquifers that rainfall cannot replenish.

Elevated temperatures and the absence of a comprehensive water policy or plan have placed Libya under significant water stress, potentially jeopardizing its ability to supply water to its people. This situation is already leading to competition between communities for water access. Forecasts for 2040 suggest that this water scarcity is likely to intensify, presenting a formidable challenge to the country’s water security and economic progress. The looming risk of water depletion poses a severe threat to the agricultural sector, which employs a quarter of the population in the southern regions of Libya.

Desertification

Desertification stands as a paramount environmental concern in Libya, presenting the peril of additional depletion of the already scarce arable land and, in turn, potentially jeopardizing food security. This phenomenon results from a convergence of factors, including rapid urbanization and the excessive utilization of water resources and natural vegetation.

So far, roughly 95 percent of Libya’s territory consists of desert terrain. The densely populated regions are the coastal areas, low mountains, and isolated oases within the desert. These regions face the most severe land degradation and have the least protection for their diverse ecosystems and habitats.

Poor adaptation capabilities

Libya encounters significant challenges when adjusting to the impacts of worldwide climate change, primarily because of its geographical features and constrained capacity for effective governance.  At the same time, the nation’s economy heavily relies on the production and export of hydrocarbons, both of which have been negatively affected by recent conflicts and the fluctuation in oil prices.

Recently, the National Oil Corporation has implemented measures to reduce the carbon footprint associated with its oil and gas operations and advocated for the advancement of renewable energy projects. However, governmental involvement in these efforts has been fragmented despite urging from international partners.

But given the country’s ongoing political crisis, climate-related challenges are expected to remain low overall on the domestic agenda. In the future, the government should prioritize economic diversification to lessen Libya’s reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, it ought to encourage the shift toward renewable energy by enhancing the business environment for private-sector investments in this sector.

Agriculture

The agriculture sector is the most affected by climate change and increased water scarcity in Libya, since it heavily relies on irrigated farming, and any disruption in water supply directly impacts crop yields. With increasing temperatures, the losses from evaporation, currently estimated at around 4 million cubic meters per year, are expected to rise. Prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall patterns can also lead to reduced agricultural productivity. On the other hand, increased temperatures negatively affects crop growth, as some crops may not be well-suited to extreme heat. The need for water also grows as temperatures rises, and as demand escalates, ensuring sufficient water supply becomes more challenging. Warmer temperatures also create favorable conditions for the proliferation of pests and diseases that affect crops and livestock. Projected yearly temperature rises of approximately 1.5-2°C in Libya are expected to result in a decline in crop yields of as much as 30 percent by the year 2060. Additionally, climate change has contributed to the problem of desertification in Libya, leading to the encroachment of desert areas onto arable land. Currently, just 3.8 million hectares, equivalent to 1-2 percent of the nation’s total land area, are suitable for cultivating crops. Desertification also degrades soil quality and makes it less suitable for agriculture. Dust storms and sand dune movement can further damage crops and farmland as well. To mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture, the Libyan government needs to invest in adaptive measures, such as improving water management, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, and implementing sustainable agricultural practices. Building resilience in the agricultural sector is crucial to ensure food security and economic stability in the country.

Energy

Libya possesses the African continent’s most extensive oil and gas reserves, ranking ninth worldwide in terms of these resources. Furthermore, the country engages in substantial natural gas exports. Although production rates vary due to various conflict-related factors, in 2021, Libya managed to export an average of 1.2 million barrels per day, resulting in annual public revenues of approximately $22-24 billion. Libya’s dependence on worldwide hydrocarbon prices renders it highly susceptible to fluctuations in global oil demand. At the same time, despite its substantial wealth, Libya’s fundamental infrastructure has been gradually deteriorating, and its electricity and water systems are in an unsustainable state, on the brink of collapse. These deficiencies stem from the ongoing conflict as well as the legacy of the former regime, which established a convoluted network of heavily subsidized state-owned monopolies (giving Libya some of the cheapest gasoline, electricity and water utility services in the world) that have limited ability to undergo reform or enhance their cost-efficiency. To face these challenges, the Libyan government needs to ensure the stability of its power grid through investments in essential maintenance, energy efficiency measures, and subsidy reform. Additionally, the government needs to establish a conducive environment to private sector investments in renewable energy.

Healthcare

Climate change has multifaceted impacts on the healthcare system, affecting both the demand for healthcare services and the ability to deliver them effectively. Currently, healthcare services in Libya face various shortcomings, such as reliance on foreign healthcare professionals, inadequate primary care infrastructure, neglect of services in rural regions—resulting in underfunding or disregard—and impairment of and limited access to existing healthcare facilities. The impact of the conflict has further exacerbated the breakdown of the emergency medical system in numerous urban areas in the country. At the same time, A rise in overall temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are expected to potentially increase flooding and raise the incidence of waterborne diseases, such as Cholera and Dysentery. Increased heat can also affect the distribution and behavior of disease-carrying vectors like mosquitoes, increasing the prevalence of diseases such as malaria, dengue, and Zika. The more frequent and prolonged heatwaves could also contribute to heat-related fatalities, particularly in urban areas, further stressing the already constrained healthcare system in Libya. The confluence of warming trends and existing pollution issues in coastal Libyan cities can also lead to an uptick in respiratory illnesses, like Asthma. Additionally, increased occurrences of dust storms and sandstorms have the potential to not only harm the physical infrastructure but also elevate the risk of illnesses due to greater exposure to sand, chemical pollutants, and related particulate matter. Therefore, the healthcare system in Libya needs to adapt to the changing climate by developing strategies for disease surveillance, disaster preparedness, and infrastructure resilience. Moreover, the Libyan healthcare sector can contribute to climate mitigation efforts by reducing its own carbon footprint and advocating for policies that address climate change.

• UNICEF Libya – Water Scarcity and Climate Change Report
• The World Bank – Libya – Climate Change Knowledge Portal
• USAID – Climate Change Risk Profile
• UNSDCF – Libya 2023-2025
• UN Climate Change Fact Sheet – Libya

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