Climate profile: Morocco

Morocco has been recognized by the 4^th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as significantly vulnerable to changes in climate.  The country is affected by the increase of average temperatures, droughts, and changes in sea levels and rainfall patterns. It is projected to witness a decrease in water precipitation of 10-20 percent across the country, with a 30 percent decline in the Saharan region by 2100. Extreme weather events, including severe droughts and floods, and extreme heat waves, have also become more frequent and drastic. Recent studies anticipate an extension of that is equivalent to five days per year by 2100. It is equally expected that heat waves would last around twenty-six days longer by 2100.

Increasing temperature

Morocco has undergone significant warming trends since the 1960s, with the mean annual temperature rising by 0.9°C during this period. The observed average increase of 0.2°C per decade surpasses the global average. While temperature rise in Morocco varies across seasons, the most notable waves of temperature surge have occurred in April, May, June, September, October, and November. There also has been a significant increase in the frequency of hot days throughout the year, by almost 20 percent per month between September to November.

Heat is expected to further escalate in Morocco over the century. The average annual temperature is projected to rise by 1.5°C to 3.5°C by the middle of the century, and by over 5°C by the end of the century. The number of “hot days” will continue to increase, most significantly in July, August, and September.

Precipitation and water scarcity 

Over the period of 1960 to 2020, there has been a significant decline in water inflows in Morocco. The availability of renewable water resources per person annually went down from 2,560 m³ to approximately 620 m³. This places the country in a state of structural water stress, with water availability falling below the threshold of 1,000 m³ per person. Moreover, Morocco is rapidly approaching the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m³ per person per year.

Water resources in Morocco will continue to decline due to prolonged arid periods and increased occurrence of drought conditions. Winter precipitation is also expected to decrease as temperatures rise. Forecasts suggest a notable decrease in average annual rainfall throughout the country, with a reduction ranging from 10-20 percent, and up to 30 percent in the Saharan region.

Agriculture

The primary sector in Morocco represents 15 percent of the economy. The agriculture and fisheries sectors are hosting half of the employed population, but both sectors are, however, significantly vulnerable to climate change. For instance, the cultivation of vital crops like cereals is highly vulnerable to climatic hazards as they are predominantly grown in areas with limited soil and water resources. Considering the significant contribution of agriculture to the Moroccan economy, accounting for approximately 13 percent of the GDP, any fluctuations in climate on a temporary or seasonal basis directly impact the national economy. In response to climate change and its effects on agriculture, the Moroccan government has implemented measures to promote water productivity among small-and-medium-sized farmers by modernizing irrigation systems and improving water governance. Additionally, the government has provided investment support for enhancing disaster and climate resilience, as well as expanded financial coverage against catastrophic events.

Tourism

The tourism sector, which is the second-largest contributor to the national GDP in Morocco, representing 17 percent of the country’s GDP, is highly susceptible to climate change impacts and has been identified as a priority sector in Morocco’s adaptation strategy. The potential rise in sea levels poses a threat to infrastructure, including buildings, roads, and natural heritage sites, and may negatively affect beach accessibility. Moreover, an escalation in maximum temperatures and extreme weather events is expected to diminish the appeal of Morocco as a tourist destination.

Health

Increased heat and extreme heat conditions results in significant implications for human and animal health in Morocco, including the increased risk of mortality, resurgence of Malaria, increased risk of leishmaniasis, as well as the introduction of other vector-borne diseases including Zika. Flooding will also increase the risk of death, and droughts will increase the risk of infectious diseases. A recent WHO study, using a high-emissions scenario, projected heat related death in the elderly population aged sixty-five years and older in Morocco to increase to almost fifty deaths per 100,000 inhabitants by 2080, compared to the current baseline of five death by 100,000 inhabitants.

• The World Bank – Morocco Country Climate and Development Report
• The World Bank – Morocco – Climate Risk Country Profile
• The World Bank – Climate Variability, Drought, and Drought Management in Morocco’s Agricultural Sector
• UNFCC – Morocco’s NDC
• International Energy Agency – Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Morocco

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