Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

Explore the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s latest insights, commentary, articles, media hits, and in-depth reports

All commentary & analysis

VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, CALIF., CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES 12.18.2025

Report

Mar 30, 2026

How NATO can integrate AI to prevail in future algorithmic warfare

By Dominika Kunertova

NATO’s competitive edge in the era of emerging and disruptive technologies will come from treating AI as a general-purpose enabler embedded across the Alliance’s digital backbone. Military AI does not generate new risks but creates more room for human error and miscalculation. Accidents and inadvertent escalation thus become more likely as military systems bring in more AI components.

Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity

In the News

Mar 28, 2026

Matchett quoted in Agencia EFE on how the war in the Middle East puts desalination plants at risk

By Ginger Matchett

On March 27, GeoStrategy Initiative assistant director Ginger Matchett was quoted in “Middle East war puts drinking water supply in Gulf countries at risk” for Agencia EFE on how the Gulf states rely on desalination plants, making infrastructure an easy target and vulnerable to attacks. She noted there is a paradox between oil and water, where oil extraction […]

Energy & Environment Infrastructure

In the News

Mar 28, 2026

Daniels published in RAND on AI competition between the US and China

By Atlantic Council

On March 26, Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Owen Daniels published a policy paper for the RAND Corporation on “Open Models, Soft Power, and Spectrum of US-China Artificial Intelligence Competition.”

Artificial Intelligence China

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

By Paul Amato

With the New START treaty's caps on the US nuclear force expired, the United States has an opportunity to increase and adapt its nuclear force to deter both Russia and China. Policymakers should seize it.

China Defense Policy

In the News

Mar 25, 2026

Wilkening quoted in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum on hypersonic threats

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow Dean Wilkening was quoted in an Indo-Pacific Defense Forum article, titled “Indo-Pacific allies join to counter hypersonic threats.” Wilkening discussed the impacts of hypersonic capabilities on air and missile defense systems, highlighting the capability enhancements needed to counter these threats.

Defense Technologies Indo-Pacific

In the News

Mar 25, 2026

Kroenig quoted in The New York Times on NATO, Trump, and Iran

On March 25, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The New York Times on NATO Secretary General Rutte's praise of the war in Iran, arguing that Rutte openly criticizing President Trump would undermine the alliance.

Iran NATO

Report

Mar 25, 2026

Toplines: Deterring Putin’s aggression against NATO

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Five key places in the Nordic and Baltic region are in the Kremlin's crosshairs. How should NATO prepare?

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

In the News

Mar 25, 2026

Rosenstein quoted in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum article on hypersonic capabilities

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense assistant director Jonathan Rosenstein was quoted in an article from the Indo-Pacific Defense Forum on “Indo-Pacific allies join to counter hypersonic threats.” Rosenstein highlighted the unique advantage that hypersonic weapons present for operational capabilities in the Indo-Pacific theater.

Defense Technologies Indo-Pacific

In the News

Mar 24, 2026

Matchett for Noticias Uno on Iran’s threats to desalination plants

By Ginger Matchett

On March 23, GeoStrategy Initiative assistant director Ginger Matchett was featured on Noticias Uno’s broadcast on the war in Iran and desalination plants. She stated how she thinks Iran is threatening attacks on desalination plants because they want the Gulf states to take action and possibly intervene.

Energy & Environment Infrastructure

Timely Commentary & Analysis

Mar 23, 2026

Braw in Foreign Policy on seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf

By Elisabeth Braw

On March 23, Transatlantic Security Initiative senior fellow Elisabeth Braw was published in Foreign Policy in an article describing how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded thousands of seafarers and disrupted global shipping amid escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel.

Crisis Management Middle East

Timely Commentary & Analysis

Mar 23, 2026

Braw in Future Center on the hidden risks facing the Strait of Hormuz

By Elisabeth Braw

On March 23, Transatlantic Security Initiative senior fellow Elisabeth Braw was published in Future Center in an article examining how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz threatens not only global energy flows but also the undersea cables that underpin international communications and digital connectivity.

Middle East Security & Defense

In the News

Mar 23, 2026

Daniels interviewed on Fox Report on AI tools in Iran

By Atlantic Council

On March 22, Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Owen Daniels was interviewed on Fox Report on the topic of the use of artificial intelligence in the Iran conflict.

Artificial Intelligence Defense Policy

In the News

Mar 20, 2026

Kroenig quoted in The Economist on war in Iran

By Atlantic Council

On March 19, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The Economist on US action in Iran, arguing that President Trump is weakening a regime hostile to the United States.

Iran Security & Defense

Dispatches

Mar 20, 2026

Oil waivers risk sustaining Russia’s war effort amid the Iran war

By Linas Kojala, Vytautas Leškevičius

Relieving US sanctions on Russian oil would give Moscow a reprieve just as financial pressure was beginning to constrain its room for maneuver in its war against Ukraine.

Energy & Environment Energy Markets & Governance

Issue Brief

Mar 20, 2026

Aquatic Tiger: How long-range submarine drones could play a role in a Taiwan conflict

By Markus Garlauskas with contributions from Drew Holliday, Adam Kozloski, Nicholas Takeuchi, and Paul Vebber

Could submarine drones help the United States deter or counter a Chinese attack on Taiwan? The Aquatic Tiger wargame was designed to find out. The Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative reports on the wargame's findings, with implications for the US government, the defense industry, and more. 

Conflict Defense Technologies

Trackers and Data Visualizations

Mar 20, 2026

Tracking US military assets in the Iran war

By Joe Costa, Theresa Luetkefend, and Moss Gillespie,

What is the US military committing to the war in Iran? How will that affect the US presence in other theaters around the world—including the Pacific, where the United States faces its most consequential challenge? We’re tracking the aircraft carriers, bombers, and missile defense systems deployed to Operation Epic Fury.

China Defense Industry
More resilient federal agencies require better systems, not simply individuals with a greater innate ability or learned skill set to overcome challenges.

Issue Brief

Mar 19, 2026

Federal agencies under pressure need smarter systems, not tougher people

By Caitlin Thompson

Resilience is an important trait for national security practitioners, but it is not a solution for problems with agency and department design. Better systems and strategies can ensure that individuals are fully prepared and ready to respond to crises, rather than consistently under strain.

National Security Resilience

Dispatches

Mar 18, 2026

Six strategic risks the Trump administration should evaluate in the Iran war

By Nathan Freier

Risk assessments often boil down to one question: What is the likelihood that the chosen approach will deliver the desired outcomes at acceptable cost?

Conflict Iran

Dispatches

Mar 18, 2026

Attacks on desalination plants in the Iran war forecast a dark future

By Ginger Matchett

The attacks on desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain offer a glimpse into the dangers the region would face if water infrastructure is intentionally targeted at scale.

Conflict Energy & Environment

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