Middle East

Narco noir: Drugs, gangs and mercenaries in Latin America

By Alia Brahimi

In Season 2, Episode 14 of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, a renowned expert on non-state armed groups and organised crime. They begin by discussing the escalation of gang violence in Haiti over the last year, despite the arrival of the American PMC, Vectus Global, which is led by the Blackwater founder Erik Prince. Vanda points out that a recent air campaign weaponizing off-the-shelf drones was intended to decapitate the gangs but, while hundreds of Haitians have been killed, none of them have been significant gang leaders. They go on to explore why governments in the region allow and coopt street militias, the bunkering of fuel by colectivos in Venezuela, Hizballah’s continuing narcotics operations across Latin America, the IRGC’s role in drug trafficking, and how the regime in Iran ends.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Iran can still normalize its economy—but the path will be painful and slow

By Bart Piasecki

Iran’s inflation crisis is driven by persistent exchange‑rate instability, entrenched fiscal dominance, and international sanctions. Despite these structural challenges, there remains a clear—but difficult—path toward economic normalization.

How Iran’s water bankruptcy seeped into the protest movement

By Nik Kowsar

Many of Iran's protest hubs overlap with areas where severe water shortages in recent years have made life increasingly difficult for people.

How Israeli technology could help solve Iran’s water crisis

By Joseph Epstein and Dalga Khatinoglu

Iran faces a stark choice: find ways to access the world's most advanced water technologies, or continue toward a crisis.

Washington’s UNRWA report shows how public discourse is divorced from reality

By Melanie Robbins 

The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees has become a proxy theater for unresolved political questions.