Content

New Atlanticist

Apr 12, 2020

OPEC’s historic deal may still not be enough

By Randolph Bell and Reed Blakemore

On April 12, a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ten other oil producing countries (known as OPEC+) reached a historic deal to cut 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to meet the historic challenge of a COVID-19-driven drop in demand. But as the oil market digests OPEC’s and OPEC+’s largest-ever single oil production cut in the face of an overwhelming demand shock, the question remains: will it be enough?

Oil and Gas
Russia

In the News

Apr 10, 2020

Cohen in Forbes: Too Little Too Late? Russia And Saudi Arabia Reach Truce In Oil Price War

By Atlantic Council

Oil and Gas
Politics & Diplomacy

New Atlanticist

Apr 9, 2020

The compelling incentives for Saudi-Russian rapprochement

By Alan Riley

The impact of this price war combined with the demand destruction triggered by the impact of the coronavirus are likely to force both Russian and Saudi Arabia back to the negotiating table to agree a deal which will—at least in substance—restore OPEC plus, sooner rather than later.

Coronavirus
Energy Markets & Governance

New Atlanticist

Mar 26, 2020

Dual demand and supply shocks have created historic oil crisis, IEA executive director says

By David A. Wemer

Dramatically lower oil demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and an emerging supply glut caused by the failure of major oil producers to cut production has slammed the global oil market with a crisis “unique in history,” according to Dr. Fatih Birol.

Climate Change & Climate Action
Energy Markets & Governance

EnergySource

Mar 12, 2020

Oil market meltdown?

By John Soughan

Over the weekend of March 7–8, the breakdown of the previous oil production agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia led to the broader collapse of the arrangement between OPEC and OPEC+. What will the rift will mean for the global oil market?

Coronavirus
Energy Markets & Governance

Event Recap

Mar 11, 2020

Atlantic Council press call: Oil market meltdown: Price wars, coronavirus, and energy geopolitics

Last week’s breakdown of OPEC+ meetings in Vienna has turned a demand side driven decline in oil prices caused by the impacts of Coronavirus into an oil price war between two oil producing giants, with US shale production the ostensible target. If the standoff continues, however, the price war might ultimately do more harm to the Saudi and Russian economies. With increasing uncertainty about the depth of Coronavirus’ impact on global growth, the price war might also contribute to a sharp decline in the global economy. Helima Croft, David L. Goldwyn, Jean-Francois Seznec, Anders Aslund, and Randolph Bell discuss ongoing market volatility, the origins of the crisis, what’s next for US shale, and the implications of it all for energy and geopolitics

Coronavirus
Energy & Environment

New Atlanticist

Mar 9, 2020

Saudi Arabia and Russia feud over coronavirus oil response: Will everyone lose?

By David A. Wemer

"While Russia’s decision last week not to support OPEC’s proposal for a production cut and the subsequent oil price war—which as of publishing has pushed Brent crude down more than 9 percent—is surely part of the larger story of the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak, it is actually better understood as a geopolitical story about how US energy production growth has strengthened the United States’ international posture, which in turn has reshaped a number of global relationships," Randolph Bell says.

Coronavirus
Energy Markets & Governance

MENASource

Feb 20, 2020

To deter Iran, the Gulf states need stronger navies

By Daniel J. Samet

The Gulf states should follow Washington’s lead in restoring deterrence in the face of the desperate regime in Tehran.

Iran
Middle East

IranSource

Jan 27, 2020

Why mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran keeps failing

By Banafsheh Keynoush

Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran means changing the balance of power in a way that pleases both countries.

Iran
Middle East

MENASource

Jan 24, 2020

China’s Persian Gulf strategy: Keep Tehran and Riyadh content

By Julia Gurol and Jacopo Scita

The current tensions between Washington and Tehran have been a major stress test for China’s Persian Gulf strategy.

China
Iran
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Experts

Fellow

Stefanie Hausheer Ali

Nonresident Fellow

Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs

Arabic Economy & Business

Fellow

Simin Kargar

Nonresident Fellow

Digital Forensic Research Lab

Cybersecurity Disinformation