The Big Story

Oct 24, 2023

The global consequences of the Israel-Hamas war are just beginning. Here’s what to watch.

By Kirsten Fontenrose

It’s hard to predict what decisions the players will make tomorrow, but here are the early warning signs that could indicate what will come next in the Middle East and beyond.

Conflict Israel

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 20, 2023

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2023 

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Brazil China

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 9, 2023

Welcome to 2033: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 160 experts

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight gurus on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the prospect of nuclear proliferation to the probability of great-power war to the potential for more global volatility.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 9, 2023

The Global Foresight 2023 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2022, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Dec 23, 2022

The top 23 risks and opportunities for 2023

The war in Ukraine changed the world in 2022. How will it continue reshaping global affairs in 2023 and what else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

Africa Americas

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Dec 21, 2022

Global Foresight 2023

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2023. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2023 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

The Big Story

Oct 17, 2022

The Freedom and Prosperity Indexes: How nations create prosperity that lasts

By Dan Negrea, Matthew Kroenig

The inaugural Freedom and Prosperity Indexes show that democracies do indeed deliver. It’s time to reset the terms of the debate by letting the data do the talking. And the indexes have a lot to tell us. They reveal the most effective ways for governments to invest in their most important resource: their people.

Africa Americas

The Big Story

Apr 5, 2022

How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures.

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine is a world-historical event, marking the final act of the post-Cold War period and the start of a new era, yet unwritten. The spectrum of possible outcomes ranges from a volatile new cold or hot war involving the United States, Russia, and China; to a frozen conflict in Ukraine; to a post-Putin settlement in which Russia becomes part of a revised European security architecture.

Conflict Europe & Eurasia

The Big Story

Mar 8, 2022

What are the risks and benefits of US/NATO military options in Ukraine? Our strategic risk calculator has answers.

By Tyson Wetzel, Barry Pavel

A strategic risk calculator for policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic to assess the possible risks and benefits of boosting their military assistance to the Ukrainian government.

Conflict NATO


Jan 4, 2022

After the insurrection: How domestic extremists adapted and evolved after the January 6 US Capitol attack

By Jared Holt

This report by the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) provides an overview and analysis of the shifts observed in domestic extremist movements since the 2021 Capitol attack.

Elections Rule of Law