Content

Report

Sep 19, 2024

NATO-Russia dynamics: Prospects for reconstitution of Russian military power

By Andrew A. Michta, Joslyn Brodfuehrer

The Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, brought war to the North Atlantic Alliance’s doorstep—altering the political-military dynamics between NATO and its neighbor to the east. Since the Russian invasion, NATO has been undergoing a dramatic change that has impacted its plans, command structure, Force Model, and capabilities requirements. The effectiveness of this change must be gauged against the adversary’s ability to field its forces and resource them in a way that negatively impacts the Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s ability to execute the new regional plans. The delta between how quickly Russia can rebuild its military and how quickly NATO can rearm, especially the European allies, will define the risk level for the Alliance should deterrence fail. A credible assessment of the speed with which Russia can reconstitute and expand its military—especially its land forces component, which has been significantly attritted during the current campaign in Ukraine—is crucial to accurately assessing NATO’s overall force posture and ability to respond should Russia choose to attack a member of the Alliance. Here, the expertise and assessments of the United States’ allies most exposed to the Russian threat along the eastern flank offer valuable insights from the frontline, augmented by their regional expertise and understanding of Russian culture, politics, and military infused with centuries of experience of living next door to Russia.

Central Europe Eastern Europe

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Sep 17, 2024

From rhetoric to reality: Nearshoring in the Americas

By the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s Nearshoring Working Group

Over the past five years, global shifts have reshaped the world. China's rise, US-China tensions, COVID-19, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, pushing resilience to the top of the agenda. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) can seize the opportunity to provide solutions for US companies through nearshoring.

Caribbean Economy & Business

Report

Sep 17, 2024

Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power

By David O. Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, Samantha Wong

Reassessing China’s changing strategy, doctrine, and warfighting approach as a peer nuclear power, and China’s employment of this nuclear power.

China Conflict

Report

Sep 13, 2024

Part 3. Defense cooperation: Turkey’s triangular balancing in the Black Sea region

By Rich Outzen

For stability in the Black Sea region, the West should seek to converge with its most potent regional ally, Turkey.

Conflict Defense Industry

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Sep 13, 2024

Part 4. Turkey’s geopolitical role in the Black Sea and European energy security: From pipelines to liquefied natural gas

By Eser Özdil

Turkey’s strategic position in the region provides cooperation opportunities for European energy security and economic interdependence.

Eastern Europe Energy & Environment

Report

Sep 13, 2024

A sea of opportunities: Exploring cooperation between Turkey and the West in the Black Sea

By Atlantic Council Turkey Programs

In the political sphere, the interests of Turkey and the West in the Black Sea largely overlap.

Defense Industry Defense Technologies

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Sep 13, 2024

A sea of opportunities: Introduction

By Yevgeniya Gaber

Turkey and Western countries need to explore the prospects for enhanced cooperation in the Black Sea region to achieve results together that neither could accomplish alone.

Defense Industry Defense Policy

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Sep 13, 2024

Part 1. Political and diplomatic dialogue: Challenges and opportunities for Black Sea cooperation between Turkey and the West in the post-2022 environment

By Maryna Vorotnyuk

Turkey and the West should explore avenues of cooperation and fostering a more cooperative engagement culture.

Eastern Europe Europe & Eurasia

Report

Sep 13, 2024

Part 2. Maritime security: Redefining regional order in a new security environment

By Serhat Güvenç

A redefinition of the EU-Turkey relations will result with a lasting maritime security arrangement in the Black Sea.

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Report

Sep 13, 2024

A sea of opportunities: Main takeaways and policy recommendations

By Yevgeniya Gaber

Recommendations for the West and Turkey for enhancing cooperation in defense, maritime security, energy, and political dialogue.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies