Reports

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“Since the 1990s, a number of separatist movements and conflicts have challenged the borders of the states of the former Soviet Union and created quasi-independent territories under Russian influence and control,” states Agnia Grigas, a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, in the opening of her new report, Frozen Conflicts: A Tool Kit for US Policymakers. In the report, Grigas differentiates between Moscow’s policies toward the breakaway regions of the 1990s, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, and the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and subsequent war in eastern Ukraine.

 

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“During the Cold War, we were facing nuclear war if we screwed up. That was an incentive to get it right, to stay ahead of developments. Today, we have no strategy that covers the entire world – the changes that are coming. And there’s a lot of change going. For 500 years, we lived under Westphalian nation-state systems. But globalization has eroded borders. For the first time this world’s people are politicized, interconnected by technology. The nature of power is changing. The nature of international cooperation is changing. The nature of conflict is changing. We’re not evolving well to adapt. This world is not as dangerous as that during the Cold War, but it is much more complicated.”

—Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft, USAF (Ret.)
9th and 17th United States Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs

 

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“As technologies further improve the world’s ability to access and operate in space, the new administration will need to rethink how the United States wants to act alongside its fellow nations...This Atlantic Council Strategy Paper does a great job initiating this important conversation at a very important time.”
– James E. Cartwright, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff


There are growing risks and threats to US satellites, civilian and military alike, and challenges to stated US goals in space. The question for the new administration, however, is whether hegemonic means to address those challenges are likely to achieve US goals. It is this paper’s assertion that they are not. Instead, a rebalancing of means used to address US goals in space is now necessary, based on a comprehensive assessment of the strategic space environment through the next ten to twenty years, toward ensuring that the ways and means being pursued to address those goals are in alignment. This assessment must extend beyond the Pentagon as well, to include the rapidly expanding cast of governmental and nongovernmental space actors. In particular, industry representatives should be brought into a process of dialogue with the national space security community to discuss priorities and concerns.

 

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As NATO leaders prepare to meet in Warsaw this July, the Alliance faces the greatest threats to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. The most pressing, fundamental challenges include a revanchist Russia, eroding stability in the greater Middle East, a weakened European Union, and uncertain American and European leadership.

 

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Five years after the 2011 revolution, Egypt’s economy is floundering and remains far from recovery. Successive Egyptian governments have struggled to develop a vision for a new economic model for Egypt, while simultaneously implementing populist policies to appease the immediate demand of the public. In “The Economic Decline of Egypt after the 2011 Uprising,” authors Mohsin Khan and Elissa Miller examine the trajectory of Egypt’s economy since 2011 and what the current Egyptian government should do to arrest the economy’s downward slide.

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After a historic neck and neck race, the final results are now in: Peruvians have elected 77-year-old economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) as president. In office, PPK will have to cope with the fact that Fuerza Popular, his opponent Keiko Fujimori’s party, won an absolute majority in Congress, putting into question his ability to easily implement reforms. Without legislative support, what can we expect from his presidency? How will he reconcile demands for increased spending with slowing economic growth? Will his economic plan be enough to jumpstart the economy?

In this month’s Spotlight, we ask: What are the top four issues President-elect Kuczynski must address in his first one hundred days in office?
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With the impending Brexit referendum on June 23, economists must anticipate the ramifications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). This is the first time the voluntary integration of the EU has been threatened, and creates a distressing existential question: is EU membership valuable enough?

 

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Shape, Steer, and Sustain reminds readers that economic forces, too often ignored, help underpin world order, and that America can employ its own “economic statecraft” to achieve some of its geopolitical objectives. It is a worthwhile effort which ought to be widely read.”

Henry Kissinger, former United States Secretary of State, on Shape, Steer, and Sustain: A US Strategy for the New Global Economic Order


Ten years ago, most observers predicted a period of smooth sailing for the world economy. Today, the world looks very different. The global economy experienced a major crisis in 2008, from which many countries have not fully recovered. Europe faces a series of major economic, financial, social, and political stresses, from outside its borders and from within. Many of the fastest-growing economies from that time, especially commodity exporters, are now experiencing serious difficulties. China is still growing at a reasonable rate, but more slowly than a few years ago. Much of the Middle East is in turmoil and its economies, with rare exceptions, are suffering. The Doha Round has proved highly disappointing, failing to meet lofty expectations. Global debt rose significantly, and job creation has stalled in many parts of the world.

 

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Five years after Tunisia’s revolution, which ousted longtime authoritarian ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and put the country on the path towards nascent democracy, democratic and economic reforms have stalled. Following the revolution, the United States, the European Union (EU), and EU member states—namely France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—substantially boosted assistance to Tunisia. But simply increasing support has not proven to be effective. To help Tunisia as it moves away from the immediate post-revolutionary period, the United States and the EU must develop a joint transatlantic strategy that recognizes Tunisia as a priority for Western engagement with the Arab world.

 

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The Pacific Alliance–an innovative pact among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru–has unprecedented opportunity to capitalize on political changes in Brazil and Argentina and move the region into a new era of regional integration. A new publication by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Bertelsmann Foundation, released just weeks ahead of the Alliance’s Sixth Presidential Summit in Chile, says that now is the moment for the Alliance to deepen engagement with Mercosur and build on efforts to strengthen financial market, energy, trade, and foreign policy coordination.

 

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