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EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 22, 2018

There’s a New Tariff in Town: Implications of Trump’s Steel Tariffs

By Ole Moehr

Economists consider tariffs a tax on consumers. Case in point, President Trump’s former chief economic advisor Gary Cohn. He recently warned that the administration’s twenty-five percent tariff on steel and ten percent tariff on aluminum combined with threatened duties on Chinese goods could cancel out the 2017 tax cut. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides an overview of how the Trump Administration’s steel tariffs might impact the US economy.

Economy & Business Trade and tariffs

EconoGraphics

Jun 4, 2018

GDPR’s Quest for World Domination

By Ole Moehr

On May 25, the European Union’s (EU) sweeping new data privacy regulation came into force. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides EU residents with more control and protection of their data.

Brazil Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

May 18, 2018

US Sanctions’ Global Impact – A Case Study of RUSAL’s Supply Chain

By Ole Moehr

On April 6, 2018, the Trump Administration imposed stiff economic sanctions on 37 Russian oligarchs, oligarch-owned companies, Russian government officials, and state-owned companies.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Apr 12, 2018

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

By Ole Moehr, Zachary Coles, and Alexatrini Tsiknia

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

Africa Economy & Business

Content

Econographics

Jul 10, 2026

Inside the power struggle over Venezuela’s debt restructuring

By Bart Piasecki

As Venezuela prepares to restructure $240 billion in debt, a high-stakes contest over oil revenues is unfolding—one that could reshape creditor recoveries, US-China competition, and the country’s economic future.

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

Econographics

Jul 7, 2026

A weak yen spells trouble for Japan—at home and abroad

By Hung Tran

Japan’s weak yen is not a market anomaly. Structural capital outflows, shifting investment patterns, and dollar strength are keeping pressure on the currency—and creating potential new tensions with Washington.

Economy & Business Japan

EnergySource

Jul 2, 2026

With US sanctions temporarily lifted, is Iranian crude back on the menu?

By Lize de Kruijf, Chloe O’Connor

The US-Iran deal waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, but Washington will need further steps to meaningfully shift global crude trade and ensure clearer visibility into Iranian oil transactions.

Dollar Dominance Energy & Environment
The flags of Canada, the United States, and Mexico

EconoGraphics

Jun 30, 2026

The five stages of a USMCA shakeup

By Madeline Chalecki

While the agreement may survive at the end of negotiations, years of uncertainty, tariffs, and prolonged talks could reshape North American trade.

Americas Economy & Business

Econographics

Jun 24, 2026

As democracies grow old, it becomes harder to adopt sound economic policies

By Martin Mühleisen

By slowing growth and tightening fiscal space, aging in democracies may contribute to an increase in political polarization.

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

Econographics

Jun 19, 2026

Central banks can’t afford to keep missing their inflation targets

By Jack Muldoon

While the Iran war explains the sudden rise in inflation, relying on this excuse obscures that there is potentially a long-term problem central banks will need to confront as they manage the long tail of this crisis.

Economy & Business Macroeconomics

Econographics

Jun 18, 2026

For warning signs of the next global financial crisis, watch the activities of both banks and nonbanks

By Hung Tran

The activities that trigger financial crises can be undertaken by any financial institution, including both banks and nonbanks.

Economy & Business

Econographics

Jun 12, 2026

As the US targets Brazil’s payment system, Europe should pay close attention 

By Alisha Chhangani

In its determination on Brazil’s trade practices, the USTR has zeroed in on the instant payment system Pix—raising alarms not only in Brasília but also in Brussels.

Brazil Digital Currencies

Econographics

Jun 11, 2026

What the US can learn from Europe on prediction markets—and vice versa

By Todd Phillips

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged to billions in trading volume, prompting US investigations into insider trading and manipulation. As Congress weighs new rules, Europe’s crackdown on retail binary options offers a possible—if imperfect—regulatory template.

Economy & Business European Union

Econographics

Jun 4, 2026

The promise and limits of the new G20 template for debt restructuring

By Hung Tran

A new G20 roadmap aims to streamline sovereign debt restructurings. Yet by reducing flexibility for creditors and debtors alike, it could make future debt crises harder to resolve.

Economy & Business International Financial Institutions