Issue briefs and reports

Global Foresight 2024

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2024. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2024 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

Design questions in the software liability debate

By Maia Hamin, Sara Ann Brackett, and Trey Herr, with Andy Kotz

Software liability—resurgent in the policy debate since its mention in the 2023 US National Cybersecurity Strategy—describes varied potential structures to create legal accountability for vendors of insecure software. This report identifies key design questions for such regimes and tracks their discussion through the decades-long history of the debate.

Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Final report

By Whitney M. McNamara, Peter Modigliani, Matthew MacGregor, and Eric Lofgren*

The DoD must accelerate defense innovation adoption from the leading edge of the private sector. This report has ten recommendations to do so and features eight vignettes that explore how these actions may play out in practice.

Developing an agenda for international financial institutions and central bank digital currency

By Greg Brownstein and Utsav Saksena

Is the emerging architecture appropriate, effective, and sufficient to manage the global transition to digital money? This report focuses on three domains: financial stability, development and financial inclusion, and global payment systems.

Governance reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions

By Sienna Nordquist and Joel Christoph

The paper emphasizes the need for a governance reform roadmap at the IMF and World Bank focusing on quota reallocation, diplomatic efforts, and a commitment to diversity and democratic principles.

Navigating subsidy reform at the WTO

By Sona Muzikarova and Sophia Busch

The legitimacy of the World Trade Organization is in question. The United States and its allies, and leaders in the organization, can better wield its potential to address global issues, specifically to reduce inefficiencies from fragmentation caused by subsidies.

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order

By Elisabeth Braw

Russia's dark fleet poses a significant threat to maritime security, forming the basis of Moscow's grayzone aggression against Western institutions.

False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

By Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, Lauren Van Metre

Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. This paper showcases why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies.