Issue briefs and reports

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order

By Elisabeth Braw

Russia's dark fleet poses a significant threat to maritime security, forming the basis of Moscow's grayzone aggression against Western institutions.

False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

By Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, Lauren Van Metre

Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. This paper showcases why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies.

Climate change prioritization in low-income and developing countries

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Henry Evans

This policy brief examines the impact of climate change on education, health, and other development priorities for low-income and developing countries.

Navigating Sweden’s NATO membership: Insights for political and operational adaptation

By Viltaute Zarembaite, Christopher Skaluba, Ann Marie Dailey

Sweden is on the cusp of joining Finland as NATO's newest members, bridging a crucial gap in the region's security architecture and creating new opportunities for closer security cooperation. Once Sweden is in NATO, the Baltic Sea will be a geographically coherent strategic space—or, in more casual parlance, a "NATO lake."

How to hold the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable in European courts

By Gissou Nia, Celeste Kmiotek, Lisandra Novo, Alyssa T. Yamamoto

While there are no viable domestic routes toward accountability within Iran, national judicial systems in other states present an alternative path to justice. This report examines prospects for initiating prosecutions against IRI perpetrators in European jurisdictions.

Evolving cooperative security approaches for tomorrow’s realities

By John T. Watts

US security cooperation, which are military aid activities led or executed by the US Department of Defense, is immensely valuable if done right and can help the United States achieve its goal from the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) by building a strong coalition of allies to confront shared challenges.

Up for grabs? The Western Balkans’ aging energy systems place it between East and West

By Aleksandar Kovacevic

The Western Balkans' hydropower can help Europe's pursuit of energy security. Failure to act on this potential brings significant costs.

The future of clean energy in the Americas

By Wazim Mowla, Diego Area

LAC countries are facing major challenges in their ability to develop renewable energy projects, expand low-emission energy systems, and fill existing technical and financing gaps that hinder regional energy security. A key takeaway to come out of the Summit Implementation Roundtable was that the US-Caribbean Partnership to Address the Climate Crisis 2030 (PACC 2030) has the potential to advance clean energy goals in the Caribbean and become a blueprint to address similar challenges in Latin America.