There will be very little suspense surrounding Russia’s presidential election this month. Vladimir Putin will certainly win a fifth term as Kremlin leader. Even the shock of opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s murder is unlikely to affect the outcome.

The latest report in the Atlantic Council’s Russia Tomorrow series, “All the autocrat’s men: The court politics of Putin’s inner circle,” argues that the lack of suspense surrounding the result of the Russian presidential election does not mean that it will not be meaningful. Author Mikhail Zygar writes that on the contrary, this ritual is a political watershed that will determine the landscape in Russia for years to come—and possibly what Russia will look like after Putin finally passes from the scene. That is because, in the absence of institutions, Russian politics are effectively court politics, dominated by the clan battles within the Kremlin leader’s inner circle.