As the coronavirus pandemic and growing economic hardship affect both Russia and Ukraine, and as the United States is absorbed with the pandemic, protests, and the approaching presidential election, some experts fear the Kremlin may launch a new strike against Ukraine in the late summer. Possible targets include Mariupol and the canal near Kherson, Moscow has been building bases on its border with Ukraine for years and the current strength of the Russian Armed Forces along that border speaks for itself: an estimated 87,000 Russian military personnel and over 5,000 Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy weapons system. As Kremlin military officials reorganize and restructure neighboring Russian forces, questions remain as to what Putin’s plans are for Ukraine in the near future. Has the Kremlin’s military posture in the region changed? How can Ukraine and the West best prepare for further Russian aggression, and how worried should they be?
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analyst and columnist for Novaya Gazeta; David Kramer, senior fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy; and Dr. Hanna Shelest, director of the Security Studies Program at The Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism,” will join us for the discussion. Ambassador John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates the discussion.
Europe in crisis
War in Ukraine
In February 2022, Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine after a months-long military build-up, threatening the country’s sovereignty and its future. This existential moment for the country follows the 2014 Maidan revolution, a nexus for Ukraine’s Europe-focused foreign policy and reform efforts. The ensuing Russian invasion and occupation of Crimea, aggression in Ukraine’s east, and Kremlin disinformation efforts, cast a shadow over Ukraine’s independence.
UkraineAlert Feb 23, 2023
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Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is widely seen as one of the biggest geopolitical blunders of the modern era, but as the war enters its second year, could the Russian dictator still have a pathway to potential victory?
UkraineAlert Feb 28, 2023
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Vladimir Putin expected a short and victorious war that would extinguish Ukrainian independence and force the country back into the Russian orbit. One year on, Ukraine has never been stronger, writes Vitaly Sych.
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Tech innovation helps Ukraine even the odds against Russia’s military might
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Over the past year, Ukrainians have demonstrated their ability to defeat Russia using a combination of raw courage and innovative military tech, writes Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.