As the coronavirus pandemic and growing economic hardship affect both Russia and Ukraine, and as the United States is absorbed with the pandemic, protests, and the approaching presidential election, some experts fear the Kremlin may launch a new strike against Ukraine in the late summer. Possible targets include Mariupol and the canal near Kherson, Moscow has been building bases on its border with Ukraine for years and the current strength of the Russian Armed Forces along that border speaks for itself: an estimated 87,000 Russian military personnel and over 5,000 Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy weapons system. As Kremlin military officials reorganize and restructure neighboring Russian forces, questions remain as to what Putin’s plans are for Ukraine in the near future. Has the Kremlin’s military posture in the region changed? How can Ukraine and the West best prepare for further Russian aggression, and how worried should they be?
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analyst and columnist for Novaya Gazeta; David Kramer, senior fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy; and Dr. Hanna Shelest, director of the Security Studies Program at The Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism,” will join us for the discussion. Ambassador John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates the discussion.
issue spotlight
Europe in crisis
War in Ukraine
In February 2022, Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine after a months-long military build-up, threatening the country’s sovereignty and its future. This existential moment for the country follows the 2014 Maidan revolution, a nexus for Ukraine’s Europe-focused foreign policy and reform efforts. The ensuing Russian invasion and occupation of Crimea, aggression in Ukraine’s east, and Kremlin disinformation efforts, cast a shadow over Ukraine’s independence.
RELATED experts
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting policies that strengthen stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.