Shifting gears: Geopolitics of the global energy transition

Driven largely by technological advancements and policies aimed at decarbonization, the prospect that oil demand will peak in the not-too-distant future has become a topic of debate in energy circles over the past several years. So-called “peak demand” would have significant geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences for oil-producing and importing nations alike. Oil resources have afforded leverage to producing nations, even though many of these countries do not have diversified economies and are highly dependent on oil revenues for the majority of their budgets.

The new Global Energy Center report, “Shifting gears: Geopolitics of the energy transition,” by Robert J. Johnston, examines major geopolitical questions and impacts related to the prospect of a peak in oil demand that include the likely redistribution of oil market share between major producers; the potential for failed states or material internal political instability in major oil-producing countries; and the geopolitical impact of peak demand on major oil-consuming nations. The report explores two scenarios to assess the varying speeds at which such a transition might take place: the International Energy Agency’s 2019 Sustainable Development Scenario, and the even more transformational Production Gap Report Scenario from the United Nations Environmental Program. In assessing these scenarios, “Shifting Gears” provides an Oil Market Transition Resilience Index to establish a benchmark by which to evaluate the geopolitical resilience of countries in a peak demand scenario, while also exploring the potential benefits for oil-importing countries.

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Shifting gears: Geopolitics of the global energy transition

Global Energy Forum Jan 9, 2020

The role of oil and gas companies in the energy transition

By Robert (“RJ”) Johnston, Reed Blakemore, and Randolph Bell

Many oil and gas companies have recognized the need to decarbonize the energy system to avoid the impacts of climate change. Initial industry efforts to play a role in the energy transition show sincerity and promise. Yet the urgent need for more oil and gas production for the foreseeable future suggests that a comprehensive framework for the oil and gas industry to support a low-carbon future while simultaneously ensuring the world has enough energy to meet development and economic growth goals has yet to be fully developed. What role can the oil and gas industry play lead the way to an energy-rich, globally prosperous, low-carbon future?
Energy Transitions Oil and Gas
Shifting gears: Geopolitics of the global energy transition

Report Jul 18, 2018

Decarbonization and peak oil demand: The role of policy in the transportation sector

By Robert J. Johnston and Hilary Novik Sandberg

What is the role of government policy in the transportation sector amidst international efforts to reduce carbon emissions and peak oil demand concerns, specifically in regard to the numerous policies and technological developments that have already been adopted or could be developed to aid the decarbonization of the transportation sector, as well as the reforms necessary to their widespread adoption?
Energy & Environment Energy Transitions
Shifting gears: Geopolitics of the global energy transition

Issue Brief Jan 8, 2018

Asian energy transition: Moving the oil market one step closer to peak demand

By Robert J. Johnston and Lily Ghebrai

While the United States and Europe are considered the pioneers of renewable energy, Asia is emerging as a major player in the renewable energy transition.
East Asia Energy & Environment

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The Global Energy Center promotes energy security by working alongside government, industry, civil society, and public stakeholders to devise pragmatic solutions to the geopolitical, sustainability, and economic challenges of the changing global energy landscape.

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Image: Electric buses part of the new fleet of electric buses for public transport launched by Chile's government, is seen parked in Santiago, Chile December 13, 2018. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado - RC1C20D9CE90