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New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Iran’s missiles may have avoided the worst outcome

By Thomas S. Warrick

If there had been significant US casualties, the world would have awoken to the dawn of a regional war, because the Trump administration would have been compelled to attack the launch sites in Iran—and probably other targets in Iran, also. If the present news holds, the situation is slightly less dangerous, if still perilous.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Washington and Tehran can step back – if they want to

By William F. Wechsler

After the January 8 Iranian missile attacks on Iraq, a successful tactical de-escalation requires both that the Iranian leadership intends for its military actions not to be escalatory and that the Trump administration perceives those actions as they were intended. In the absence of direct communications between the United States and Iran, however, the potential for misunderstanding and thus the risk of miscalculation remains high.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 7, 2020

The 11th hour transit deal is a relief for European energy consumers and a pivotal opportunity for Ukraine’s future energy strategy

By Olga Khakova

The Naftogaz agreement with Gazprom is a cautious win for Ukraine, the agreement buys time for the country to reform its energy sector, which will be critical for Ukraine’s energy security, regardless of future contracts with Gazprom.

Energy Markets & Governance Geopolitics & Energy Security

IranSource

Jan 3, 2020

Iran’s “living martyr” was ready to die, but blindsided oil markets must face new uncertainty

By Sara Vakhshouri

The immediate market reaction indicates that the common sense about this incident is that the US operation did not make the world and the Middle East region—which is responsible for significant volumes of global oil and gas production—a safer place but rather increased the instability and insecurity in the region.

Geopolitics & Energy Security Iran

UkraineAlert

Dec 22, 2019

Trump blocks Putin’s pipeline with US sanctions

By Diane Francis

Only weeks away from completion, new US sanctions force Nord Stream 2 contractor to down tools, placing the pipeline's future in jeopardy.

Geopolitics & Energy Security Oil and Gas

In the News

Dec 20, 2019

Morningstar and Fried quoted in Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on Nord Stream 2 sanctions

By Atlantic Council

Eastern Europe Economic Sanctions

UkraineAlert

Dec 19, 2019

Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev: “The likelihood of Russia helping us is zero”

By Diane Francis

Andriy Kobolyev took over the reins of Ukraine’s energy giant Naftogaz during the country's darkest hour in March 2014. Despite huge progress, he continues to face political opposition at home and an array of international challenges courtesy of the Kremlin.

European Union Geopolitics & Energy Security

UkraineAlert

Dec 19, 2019

Putin’s imperial ambitions mean Ukraine must learn to live with frozen conflict

By Taras Kuzio

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy says he will make painful concessions to achieve peace with Russia, but Putin's vision of Ukraine as part of Russia's historic heartlands means there is little room for compromise.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Dec 17, 2019

Russia gas pipeline sanctions legislation (PEES Act): A way ahead

By Daniel Fried

Enacting the sanctions mandated by the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEES Act), for all its careful crafting, may not actually block Nord Stream II but may instead burden the US-German relationship. Rather than impose sanctions, the administration should waive them for now but prepare even stronger contingency sanctions to be implemented should the Kremlin once again use gas exports as political leverage against Ukraine, Central Europe, or the Baltics.

Economic Sanctions European Union

UkraineAlert

Dec 17, 2019

Mr. Kuleba comes to Washington

By Melinda Haring

Ukraine’s Deputy PM Dmytro Kuleba visited Washington, DC, last week to reassure the US government that President Zelenskyy’s team remains committed to the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

Democratic Transitions Geopolitics & Energy Security

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