Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear Deterrence

The specter of Russian tactical nuclear de-escalation strikes, more sophisticated Chinese ballistic-missile submarines, and intercontinental North Korean capabilities all raise the stakes for nuclear deterrence. US policy makers must decide which nuclear posture will allow the United States to credibly deter nuclear war while assuring its allies and partners across the globe.

Our nuclear deterrence work

Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

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Content

In the News

Sep 9, 2026

Woolf in Orbis on the role of nuclear norms in an era of renewed competition

By Atlantic Council

On July 20, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow Amy Woolf published an article in Orbis titled “Nuclear Norms in an Era of Renewed Nuclear Competition.” She highlights that the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2026 has left nuclear weapons states without formal systems that reduce the risk of […]

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

The Big Story

Jul 2, 2026

A misguided war, a flawed deal, and a dangerous future. Here’s what to do next on Iran.

By William F. Wechsler

Trump should embrace a new negotiating approach, a new emphasis on regional security and deterrence, and a new commitment to preparing for the future.

Iran Middle East

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

TURKEYSource

May 20, 2026

The future of European nuclear deterrence—and Turkey’s role in it

By Mehmet Fatih Ceylan and Ece Şolendil

With US guarantees in doubt, Europe is moving toward its own nuclear deterrent. Can it succeed—and what role should Turkey play?

European Union Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

May 18, 2026

Kroenig and Marine published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

By Atlantic Council

On May 13, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig and Forward Defense associate director and resident fellow Alyxandra Marine published a piece in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, arguing that Washington should pursue trilateral arms control.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

By Paul Amato

With the New START treaty's caps on the US nuclear force expired, the United States has an opportunity to increase and adapt its nuclear force to deter both Russia and China. Policymakers should seize it.

China Defense Policy

Report

Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry "Trey" Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?

Arms Control China

Dispatches

Mar 4, 2026

What Macron’s changes to French nuclear policy mean for European security

By Jonathan Rosenstein and Emily Cheesman

The president’s plan, announced on March 2, expands France’s nuclear arsenal and deepens its cooperation on deterrence with European allies.

France Nuclear Deterrence
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Experts

Fellow

Jonathan Corrado

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Indo-Pacific Korea

Fellow

Akiko Fukushima

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy East Asia

Staff

Markus Garlauskas

Director

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Crisis Management Indo-Pacific

Staff

Lauren D. Gilbert

Deputy Director

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

East Asia Human Rights

Fellow

Elmar Hellendoorn

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Economic Statecraft Initiative GeoEconomics Center

Defense Policy Dutch

Fellow

Rick Hoehne

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

East Asia Europe
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