Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

Explore the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s latest insights, commentary, articles, media hits, and in-depth reports

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World leaders gather around a conference table

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 3: New Renaissance

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.

Coronavirus
A woman wearing a protective mask is seen past a portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping on a street as the country is hit by an outbreak of the coronavirus, in Shanghai, China March 12, 2020

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 2: China first

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its "Belts and Roads" assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
Foreign workers wearing protective face masks queue to use an ATM

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
A paramedic uses an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of a police officer alongside a road during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan's military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country's weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia
Coronavirus Cases Increase to 200 in Brazil

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America
Russian President Vladimir Putin work before a meeting on the situation with the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Russia, outside Moscow

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia
Door-to-door testing in an attempt to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Umlazi township near Durban

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent's recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.

Africa Coronavirus
An internally displaced Syrian girl wears a face mask as members of the Syrian Civil defence sanitize the Bab Al-Nour internally displaced persons camp, to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Azaz

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Middle East in turmoil even before pandemic hit

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.

Coronavirus Middle East
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S., March 2, 2020

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

East Asian allies dismayed by America first approach

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Absent a vibrant American commitment to helping its traditional East Asian allies restart their economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could step in, gaining influence in East Asia at the US's expense.

Coronavirus East Asia
EU flag flying under a cloud sky in Germany

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Another test for Europe

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The third pan-European crisis in a decade could further weaken EU solidarity, further widening gaps between Northern Europe and the Mediterranean South. Europe is unlikely to retain a multilateralist framework without US assistance and acquiescence from China.

Coronavirus Europe & Eurasia
A worker works at a textile factory in Qingzhou city, east China's Shandong province, 18 March 2020.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

A step change in Sino-American relations

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Bipartisan agreement that China is to blame for the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with frustration that China is pulling out of the crisis before the US, could strengthen China's authoritarian tendencies while pushing the US toward isolationism.

China Coronavirus
Empty shelves in a grocery store

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Prospects for the COVID-19 pandemic

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a global health crisis. It could spark global recession, while undermining globalism, cooperation and multilateralism, ushering in a renewed era of authoritarianism, isolation and open conflict between global powers.

Coronavirus Economy & Business

Issue briefs and reports

Jul 7, 2020

What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the pandemic and possible directions for the global system after the still-unfolding crisis.

Coronavirus G20

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

By Jeffrey Cimmino, Rebecca Katz, Matthew Kroenig, Josh Lipsky, Barry Pavel

The COVID-19 pandemic is an acute public health and economic crisis that is further destabilizing an already weakened rules-based international system. With cooperation, determination, and resolve, however, the United States and its allies can recover from the crisis and revitalize an adapted rules-based system to bring about decades of future freedom, peace, and prosperity.

China Coronavirus

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

Trade and financial fragmentation: New challenges to global stability

By Robert A. Manning

There is greater uncertainty today about the future of global trade than at any time since the post-World War II trading system was created seven decades ago. This was true before the COVID-19 pandemic froze much of the world economy; the health crisis has added a new layer of uncertainty. We are at a historic inflection point: the global trade regime urgently needs renovation and updating to meet new challenges, yet it is fraying and fragmenting.

China Digital Policy

In the News

Jul 7, 2020

Robert Manning quoted in VOA Korea on the prospect of a peace declaration ending the Korean War

By Atlantic Council

Conflict Korea

GeoTech Cues

Jul 3, 2020

Research and development still key to competitiveness: But for whom?

By Robert A. Manning, David Bray

The decade ahead must be spurred on by a new “Sputnik moment” for the United States to inspire new focus on research and development funding and initiatives to bolster the STEM workforce, while understanding the changing market dynamics connecting funding, innovation, and competitive advantage for open societies.

China Economy & Business

In the News

Jul 2, 2020

Robert Manning interviewed on VOA Russia on US-China relations

By Atlantic Council

China Politics & Diplomacy

New Atlanticist

Jul 2, 2020

What Poland wants when it comes to US troops

By Teri Schultz

It's not a place the Polish government wants to be: caught between its crucial transatlantic ally the United States and its neighbor, Europe's most powerful country, Germany.

Defense Policy Germany

Smart Partnerships Series

Jul 1, 2020

Can AI and emerging tech boost African development?

By Julian Mueller-Kaler

The final roundtable of the Smart Partnerships Series focused on the African continent and how AI as well as other emerging technologies can be harnessed there for good.

Africa Americas
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