Transatlantic Security Initiative Research & Reports

All in-depth research & reports

Cover Credit: NATO. German Air Force Eurofighter Typhoons fly over a remote stretch of Iceland while training with the Swedish Air Force as part of NATO’s Arctic Sentry activity. Arctic Sentry is a NATO vigilance activity aimed at enhancing security in the north, helping to make the Alliance safer. As part of this initiative, Sweden deployed a detachment of six Gripens to Keflavik Air Base to safeguard Icelandic airspace against threats or intrusions. Their deployment is also part of NATO’s Iceland Air Policing mission, marking the first time Sweden has led an air policing mission since joining NATO two years ago as its 32nd member. During their deployment, fighters from the Royal Danish Air Force and the German Air Force joined them for integration training. Situated in the middle of the North Atlantic, Iceland plays a vital role in helping Allies maintain situational awareness in the High North. Photo courtesy of the German Air Force.

Report

Jun 10, 2026

The future of NATO’s deterrence in the air domain

By Edward Brady

European NATO member states need to prepare to deter, and if necessary, defeat Russia—with less US support. When it comes to airpower, here are the actions European states need to take in the short, medium, and long term. 

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue briefs and reports

Apr 22, 2026

The shadow fleet is undermining the maritime order more brazenly than ever

By Elisabeth Braw

The shadow fleet—ships sailing outside the official shipping system — has grown to encompass more than a thousand oil tankers globally. Iranian shadow vessels slipping through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are the latest sign that the fleet and its main sponsor, Russia, have responded to enforcement attempts with ever more brazen violations.

Economy & Business Energy & Environment

Issue Brief

Apr 7, 2026

Fusion on paper or in practice? Making the cloud work for ISR and NATO

By Martin Zuber, Trey Herr

NATO’s eastern flank is under persistent pressure across multiple domains. The Alliance's core challenge is not sensing capacity

Defense Technologies NATO
VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, CALIF., CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES 12.18.2025

Report

Mar 30, 2026

How NATO can integrate AI to prevail in future algorithmic warfare

By Dominika Kunertova

NATO’s competitive edge in the era of emerging and disruptive technologies will come from treating AI as a general-purpose enabler embedded across the Alliance’s digital backbone. Military AI does not generate new risks but creates more room for human error and miscalculation. Accidents and inadvertent escalation thus become more likely as military systems bring in more AI components.

Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity

Report

Mar 25, 2026

Toplines: Deterring Putin’s aggression against NATO

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Five key places in the Nordic and Baltic region are in the Kremlin's crosshairs. How should NATO prepare?

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Report

Feb 12, 2026

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Issue Brief

Feb 9, 2026

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.

Economy & Business Energy & Environment

Issue Brief

Feb 4, 2026

A new Arctic strategy for Sweden

By David Auerswald

Sweden has the largest Nordic economy, a defense budget double what it was in 2022 and set to grow more, and cross-party consensus behind the foreign policy shifts that led Stockholm to join NATO in 2024. The government can and should shift its approach in the High North to a singular focus on deterring Russia.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Feb 4, 2026

Sweden’s role in countering hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea region

By Justina Budginaite-Froehly

The accession of Sweden to NATO brought the majority of the Baltic Sea under alliance control. Despite NATO's conventional superiority in the region, Russia continues to probe the Alliance's resolve with actions below the threshold of armed conflict. What advantages can NATO’s newest members offer the Alliance as it faces this aggression?

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Report

Jan 2, 2026

The evolution of Latvia’s defense and security policy in resilience building

By Armands Astukevičs and Elīna Vrobļevska

Latvia has embraced a broader concept of national resilience encompassing not only military strength but also the resilience of its society, the continuity of government and essential services during crises, the protection of critical infrastructure, and the cultivation of psychological defense among its populace.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia
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