Transatlantic Security Initiative Research & Reports

All in-depth research & reports

VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, CALIF., CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES 12.18.2025

Report

Mar 30, 2026

How NATO can integrate AI to prevail in future algorithmic warfare

By Dominika Kunertova

NATO’s competitive edge in the era of emerging and disruptive technologies will come from treating AI as a general-purpose enabler embedded across the Alliance’s digital backbone. Military AI does not generate new risks but creates more room for human error and miscalculation. Accidents and inadvertent escalation thus become more likely as military systems bring in more AI components.

Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity

Report

Mar 25, 2026

Toplines: Deterring Putin’s aggression against NATO

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Five key places in the Nordic and Baltic region are in the Kremlin's crosshairs. How should NATO prepare?

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Report

Feb 12, 2026

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Issue Brief

Feb 9, 2026

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.

Economy & Business Energy & Environment

Issue Brief

Feb 4, 2026

A new Arctic strategy for Sweden

By David Auerswald

Sweden has the largest Nordic economy, a defense budget double what it was in 2022 and set to grow more, and cross-party consensus behind the foreign policy shifts that led Stockholm to join NATO in 2024. The government can and should shift its approach in the High North to a singular focus on deterring Russia.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Feb 4, 2026

Sweden’s role in countering hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea region

By Justina Budginaite-Froehly

The accession of Sweden to NATO brought the majority of the Baltic Sea under alliance control. Despite NATO's conventional superiority in the region, Russia continues to probe the Alliance's resolve with actions below the threshold of armed conflict. What advantages can NATO’s newest members offer the Alliance as it faces this aggression?

Defense Policy Eastern Europe

Report

Jan 2, 2026

The evolution of Latvia’s defense and security policy in resilience building

By Armands Astukevičs and Elīna Vrobļevska

Latvia has embraced a broader concept of national resilience encompassing not only military strength but also the resilience of its society, the continuity of government and essential services during crises, the protection of critical infrastructure, and the cultivation of psychological defense among its populace.

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Dec 23, 2025

Prioritizing Canada’s investment in Arctic infrastructure

By Jason C. Moyer

Canada’s new budget promises a “generational investment” in infrastructure, with a significant amount earmarked for Arctic dual-use infrastructure—improving Canada’s military presence in the north, accessing untapped critical mineral reserves, and offering new economic opportunities. But this is only the beginning of the region’s infrastructure needs.

Energy & Environment Infrastructure Protection

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

How to equip Canada’s defense industrial base to meet NATO’s Hague summit commitments

By Jason C. Moyer

In 2025 Canada met NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense for the first time and committed to the new target of 5 percent by 2035, but its defense industrial base will struggle to deliver in its current state.

Defense Industry Defense Policy
NATO announced Baltic Sentry 2025, a multi-domain vigilance activity aimed at increasing maritime situational awareness in the Baltic Sea area, to deter and defend against attacks on Critical Undersea Infrastructures (CUI).

Issue Brief

Nov 26, 2025

How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts

By Elisabeth Braw

Two places in the world's oceans see a lot of suspicious maritime behavior: the Baltic Sea, and the waters around Taiwan. Elisabeth Braw reports from the NATO task force charged with protecting the undersea cables and pipelines essential to daily life in Europe, with lessons for Baltic states and Taiwan, too.

Europe & Eurasia Maritime Security
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