The Tiger Project: Research

China uses different tactics for different aims: slow but persistent maritime incursions off the coast of the Philippines and high-speed aerial harassment in Taiwanese airspace. But Manila’s responses offer useful lessons for Taipei. A new study of the Philippines’ experience shows what Taiwan can do to create limits on Chinese action without triggering open conflict.

Resilience is a nation’s ability to understand, address, respond to, and recover from any type of national security risk. Given the scale of risk Taiwan faces from mainland China, domestic resilience should be front and center in Taiwan’s national security strategy, encompassing areas such as cybersecurity, energy security, and defense resilience.

Production diplomacy provides opportunities to protect supply chains, strengthen alliances and partnerships, enhance deterrence, and build defense readiness, though it is not without risks and challenges.

Marek Jestrab considers a naval blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China and advances recommendations for the United States, Taiwan, and likeminded nations to resist and respond to a blockade.

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.

This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.

The lessons that Washington and Beijing appear to be learning from Russia’s war against Ukraine could set the stage for a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years.

2021-2022 Senior Marine Corps Fellow John Barranco considers the role of the US-Taiwanese relationship in deterring Chinese aggression and ways in which the United States can strengthen this relationship.

Markus Garlauskas suggests a strategy to counter North Korean nuclear weapons by impeding the growth of its arsenal, investing to stay ahead of new nuclear threats, and adjusting operations on the Korean Peninsula.