I decided to examine how the IMF and World Bank produces these forecasts. Since the IMF is one of the only entities in Washington that is required to monitor the health of the global financial system, one assumes that there is an actual or virtual “financial war-room” that provides early warning about the next financial crisis or bubble. Due to the IMF’s and the World Bank’s unique responsibilities, it stands to reason that twenty-first century software and forecasting tools are used by their employees on a regular basis.
Geopolitical volatility is the new normal and is not going away anytime soon.
While the news features the rise of protectionism everyday, an energy crisis due to a conflict in the Middle East or the spread of water and food insecurity, could equally disrupt the world. Should any of these situations deteriorate further, the impacts would be earth shattering for how the world governs and does business.
A new Atlantic Council study, released today, looks at the implications of these global risks on global gross domestic product (GDP), extreme poverty, middle-class growth, and country instability. This report tests the proposition that global risks are increasing faster than global growth.
Here is a visual look at the different scenarios presented in the report and their implications for global gross domestic product, extreme poverty, the middle class, and country instability.
Austin, the capital of Texas, was the third stop on the Strategic Foresight Initiative’s (SFI) research ‘road’ trip examining the future of American technological leadership, as part of a collaborative project with Qualcomm. Throughout 2016, SFI visited cities around the United States that are at the forefront of technology-based innovation that together fuel the engine of America’s growth in tech innovation. The other cities were Madison, Wisconsin; Boulder, Colorado; and the Bay Area in California. Austin was chosen because it has become one of the nation’s most prominent tech hubs. Austin enjoys its reputation thanks to its unique local culture, epitomized by the famous slogan ‘Keep Austin Weird’, the presence of one of the largest research universities in the country in the University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin), and a history of technology startups going back to the founding of Dell in 1984.