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As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.

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Latest analysis

UkraineAlert

Apr 24, 2019

How history will judge Poroshenko

By Alexander J. Motyl

The majority of Ukraine’s voters and pundits detest President Petro Poroshenko who lost his chance at a second term on April 21. However, history will prove them wrong and judge him as Ukraine’s most successful leader. Indeed, Poroshenko will go down in the annals as the man who consolidated Ukraine’s state, nation, democracy, and the […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 23, 2019

Why Poroshenko lost

By Dennis Soltys

On April 21, television star Volodymyr Zelenskiy crushed incumbent president Petro Poroshenko in the second round of Ukraine’s presidential election. Even though Zelenskiy has never held elected office, voters were so tired of corruption and economic stagnation that they were willing to take a risk. Zelenskiy ran an unusual campaign. He made few programmatic promises […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 23, 2019

Transition challenges for an outsider president

By Adrian Karatnycky

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, elected to Ukraine’s presidency Sunday in a landslide, may be one of the least prepared leaders to head a democracy in world history. Not only is he an outsider, whose main experience of politics has been to play a president in a satirical television program, he has done little to prepare for the job. […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 18, 2019

How the west helped put a comedian in reach of Ukraine’s presidency

By Mary Mycio

With polls putting Ukraine’s incumbent president Petro Poroshenko far behind TV actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy ahead of Sunday’s run-off election, it is worth considering how the West helped put this secretive comedian, backed by oligarchs, on the cusp of becoming commander-in-chief of a country at war with the Kremlin. A case in point occurred in February, […]

Conflict Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 18, 2019

Don’t believe the hype. Presidential elections aren’t what matters in Ukraine

By Melinda Haring

There’s election fever in Kyiv, and with less than a week before Ukrainians go to the polls to likely elect an inexperienced comedian as their next president, the outcome is all but certain. Volodymyr Zelenskiy should easily defeat incumbent President Petro Poroshenko on April 21.      The far more interesting question is who will […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 17, 2019

What does it mean to be Ukrainian today?

By Bohdan Nahaylo

The day of judgement in the Ukrainian presidential election is almost upon us. This is not just a contest between two political contenders and their supporters, representing different backgrounds, styles, and constituencies, or even visions, but something more fundamental. It is a clash between the old and the new. Between traditional Ukraine, in the political […]

Defense Policy Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 16, 2019

Three predictions for Ukraine’s presidential run-off

By Brian Mefford

Voters knew the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election on March 31 was a freebie, but they will make their vote count in the run-off on April 21. It was clear to the public that there would be no candidate who would receive 50 percent in round one, so Ukrainians were able to vote their […]

Elections Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 16, 2019

Is Zelenskiy really the Kremlin’s best hope in Ukraine?

By Peter Dickinson

In the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election, the leading pro-Russian candidate secured 11 percent of the vote. Compare this to 2010 when pro-Kremlin candidate Viktor Yanukovych received 49 percent. This dramatic decline reflects the scale of the damage done to Russian interests in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war. Russian aggression has alienated millions […]

Conflict Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 9, 2019

Will the elections give the Ukrainian economy the kick It needs?

By Anders Åslund

Between the two rounds of the presidential election, a strange calm has grasped Kyiv. The election billboards are gone, and so are the many local protests. The only drama takes place on the Internet, where the two remaining candidates duel with videos. This is a propitious moment to take the temperature of the Ukrainian economy. […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 8, 2019

Ukrainians are world champions at coping with crisis

By Peter Dickinson

The ability to recover from national crises is plugged into Ukraine’s DNA.

Democratic Transitions Elections

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UkraineAlert

Apr 5, 2019

What Ukraine needs from the west isn’t just cash

By Danylo Lubkivsky

In 2019, Ukraine celebrates the centennial anniversary of the unification of its national lands. On January 22, 1919, the Act of Union marked a historic milestone: for the first time in centuries, the Ukrainian people had revived their nation and unified most of its territories. Then Russian aggression destroyed our freedom, like it did again […]

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Zelenskiy wins first round but that’s not the surprise

By Mattia Nelles

The results of the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election did not surprise many. The four exit polls were remarkably close to one another and to the last comprehensive polls. They all displayed a similar picture: Volodymyr Zelenskiy would face off in the run-off with Poroshenko, who beat Tymoshenko. With the votes now counted, Zelenskiy […]

Conflict Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

How Poroshenko could win and Zelenskiy could lose

By Alexander J. Motyl

The first round of Ukraine’s presidential election went overwhelmingly to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but his victory in round two is by no means self-evident—especially if his rival, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, plays his cards right. Ironically, Poroshenko’s three main strengths are Zelenskiy’s three main weaknesses. Poroshenko has a distinguished record (with a variety of blemishes, of […]

Elections Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Apr 4, 2019

Who is really advising Zelenskiy?

By Daniel Szeligowski

Showman Volodymyr Zelenskiy may soon become the next president of Ukraine. His chances of winning the second round, slated for April 21, are high. He has long prepared to go into politics, thus his victory in the first round was neither sudden nor unexpected. However, he lacks any political experience and seems to have little […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

When javelins aren’t enough

By Diane Francis

Several US military experts were asked about the best way forward and were divided as to priorities: More military aid, more diplomacy, more sanctions, a clean-up of Ukrainian corruption, or all in varying degrees.

Conflict European Union

UkraineAlert

Apr 3, 2019

What Zelenskiy needs to do to next

By Basil Kalymon

On March 31, Ukrainians gave a first-round victory to Volodymyr Zelenskiy for president with an endorsement of just over 30 percent. The incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, obtained around 16 percent, entering the runoff over third placed Yulia Tymoshenko. The voters clearly expressed their disillusionment with the existing political establishment and have chosen as frontrunner an outsider […]

Conflict Elections

UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2019

What the business community wants from Ukraine’s next president

By Andy Hunder

Sending law enforcement officers in balaclavas armed with Kalashnikovs kicking down a company’s office door in a frantic search for financial records or tax documents is quite possibly the worst message a government can send to business owners, shareholders or executives. This is what I told President Petro Poroshenko a couple of years ago in […]

Elections Fiscal and Structural Reform

UkraineAlert

Apr 2, 2019

What does comedian’s big win mean for Ukraine?

By Volodymyr Yermolenko

Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election on March 31 and has a strong chance of winning the run-off on April 21. Zelenskiy will face incumbent Petro Poroshenko, who won just under 16 percent. Zelenskiy’s strong performance caught some off-guard, but the results of the election says at least seven important […]

Democratic Transitions Elections

UkraineAlert

Mar 29, 2019

Whoever wins Ukraine’s presidential race, Russia has already lost

By Peter Dickinson

It’s election season on Kremlin TV, but the presidential campaign receiving wall-to-wall coverage from Russia’s federal channels is taking place across the border in Ukraine. This is hardly surprising. Moscow’s obsession with all things Ukrainian is well-documented and reflects the centrality of information operations to Vladimir Putin’s five-year hybrid war against Ukraine. What’s interesting about […]

Conflict Defense Policy

UkraineAlert

Mar 29, 2019

Who gains from using the far-right in Ukraine’s elections?

By Taras Kuzio

The G-7 wrote to Minister of Interior Arsen Avakov about the threat to Ukraine’s presidential election from the far-right National Corps political party and National Militia civic organization, both led by Andriy Biletsky with whom he has had a long relationship. The G-7 warned, “They intimidate Ukrainian citizens, try to usurp the role of the […]

Elections Extremism