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Magnified US dollar bill

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

May 20, 2025

Why the US cannot afford to lose dollar dominance

By Martin Mühleisen, Valbona Zeneli

Since World War II, US geopolitical influence has been compounded by the role of the dollar as the world’s dominant currency. As global economic power becomes more diffuse and strategic competitors “dedollarize,” policymakers must determine how to maintain the dollar’s role at the center of global trade and financial networks.

Economy & Business Fiscal and Structural Reform

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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

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Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Dec 16, 2020

The China opportunity

By Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig

Despite serious conflicts of interest, there are several areas in which cooperation with China is necessary to advance likeminded allies and partners’ interests.

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Dec 16, 2020

The China challenge

By Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig

China presents a serious challenge to likeminded allies and partners, and to the rules-based system. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has launched itself on a more confrontational course.

World leaders gather around a conference table

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 3: New Renaissance

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.

Coronavirus
A woman wearing a protective mask is seen past a portrait of Chinese President Xi Jinping on a street as the country is hit by an outbreak of the coronavirus, in Shanghai, China March 12, 2020

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 2: China first

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its "Belts and Roads" assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
Foreign workers wearing protective face masks queue to use an ATM

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.

Coronavirus
A paramedic uses an infrared thermometer to measure the temperature of a police officer alongside a road during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to slow the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Ahmedabad, India, April 9, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

India and South Asia: potential humanitarian disaster

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A disorganized—and perhaps tardy—COVID-19 lockdown could mean food shortages and high mortality rates for India, while Pakistan's military, religious and civil leaders offer contradictory directives that could overwhelm the country's weak public health system.

Coronavirus South Asia
Coronavirus Cases Increase to 200 in Brazil

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Latin America vulnerable to commodity cycle

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak health care systems, tight state budgets and dense, low-income cities—plus an over-reliance on commodities in many countries—create potential hotspots across Latin America and open the possibility of a new front in the battle for influence between the US and China.

Coronavirus Latin America
Russian President Vladimir Putin work before a meeting on the situation with the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Russia, outside Moscow

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

An economic test for Putin and Russia

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Russia faces threats on two fronts: A notoriously fragile health system leaves puts Russia in a poor position to weather a prolonged COVID-related shutdown, while its ongoing energy price war with Saudi Arabia leaves little capacity to kickstart post-COVID economic growth.

Coronavirus Russia
Door-to-door testing in an attempt to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Umlazi township near Durban

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Africa left to deal alone with the pandemic?

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

The lack of robust public health systems and manufacturing basis plus rapid urbanization point to particular difficulties in weathering the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent's recovery will be shaped by US, Chinese and European engagement.

Africa Coronavirus
An internally displaced Syrian girl wears a face mask as members of the Syrian Civil defence sanitize the Bab Al-Nour internally displaced persons camp, to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Azaz

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jul 7, 2020

Middle East in turmoil even before pandemic hit

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

Weak public health systems, an over-reliance on hydrocarbons for economic growth, and a collapse in tourism point to particular disaster across the Middle East. Recovery will be long and slow absent intervention from non-regional powers.

Coronavirus Middle East