The world may be fast approaching the perfect storm, with the intersection of two major global trends. At a moment of historic transition, when the post-WWII and post-Cold War international order is eroding amid competing visions of world order and renewed geopolitical rivalries, the world is also in the early stages of an unprecedented technological transformation. It promises to be a period of exponential change, the second—and far more disruptive—chapter of the digital revolution that began with the Internet in the 1990s. Historically, technology usually races ahead of institutions, rules, and norms. The extraordinary magnitude of change at a time of global institutional fraying and disorder, however, portends a particularly dangerous gap in global governance impacting economies, societies, and the future of war.

Substantially more technology-driven change will take place during the coming two decades than in the first ICT (information and communications technology)-based revolution, with profound social, economic, and geopolitical ramifications. This new wave is a convergence of technologies, a digital synergy of artificial intelligence (AI), big data (the cloud), robotics, biotech/biosciences, three-dimensional (3D) printing, advanced manufacturing, new materials, fifth-generation (5G) powering the Internet of Things (IoT), nanoengineering and nanomanufacturing, and, over the horizon, quantum computing. It is a still thickening merger of the digital and physical economies (called “online-to-offline,” or O2O), transforming business models, transport, healthcare, finance, manufacturing, agriculture, warfare, and the very nature of work itself.

As a practical matter, as these technologies are deployed over the coming decades, they will bring about accelerating economic and geopolitical change beginning in the 2020s. For example, using AI powered by superfast 5G technology (up to one hundred times faster than the current 4G), the Internet of Things (IoT) will monitor and manage farms, factories, and smart cities. The increased productivity of ICT-connected sensors will warn of factory equipment needing maintenance; monitor energy use in buildings; give farmers real-time information on soil conditions; maintain and operate driverless vehicles; optimize energy-grid performance; and monitor remotely and diagnose individuals’ health, with gene editing, engineering the demise of malaria-carrying mosquitos, and perhaps erasing hereditary DNA to eliminate horrific diseases. In the national security realm, AI, 5G, and the IoT portend radical changes in missions from logistics and inventory management to surveillance and reconnaissance with air and undersea drones of all sizes and with autonomous capabilities.

The full text of the paper is split across the various articles linked below. Readers can browse in any order. To download a PDF version, use the button below.

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

I. The emerging tech revolution

By Robert A. Manning

Technological advancements in fields ranging from AI to biotech are already rapidly changing existing economic, social and geopolitical arrangements. How well nations are able to innovate and adapt will play a large role in determining their standing in the decades ahead.

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

Will AI and robots kill jobs?

By Robert A. Manning

New technologies are being rolled out across the world at a pace that outstrips our ability to comprehend their implications. Concerns over the death of jobs may be overblown, but the need to understand and mitigate the risks presented by emerging technologies remains.

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

National security impact

By Robert A. Manning

Technological change throughout history shaped and reshaped the strategy, tactics, and the character of war. Today’s emerging technologies have the potential to revolutionize warfighting, while also posing new challenges to strategic stability across increasingly contested global commons—air, sea, cyber, and space.

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

II. The governance conundrum

By Robert A. Manning

As the challenges posed by emerging disruptive technologies become clear, so too does the troubling deficit of global governance. The fraying of existing institutions and the resurgence of major-power competition only exacerbate this governance challenge.

Issue Brief

Jul 7, 2020

AI: preventing the coming storm

By Robert A. Manning

Developing ethical principles, standards, and norms governing AI is perhaps the most imperative governance challenge for the coming decade. In particular, the risks posed by AI and autonomous weapons require a rethinking of what constitutes a durable framework for strategic stability.

About the author

Expert

Robert A. Manning

Senior Fellow

New American Engagement Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Energy Markets & Governance

Related reading

Issue Brief Jul 7, 2020

Trade and financial fragmentation: New challenges to global stability

By Robert A. Manning

There is greater uncertainty today about the future of global trade than at any time since the post-World War II trading system was created seven decades ago. This was true before the COVID-19 pandemic froze much of the world economy; the health crisis has added a new layer of uncertainty. We are at a historic inflection point: the global trade regime urgently needs renovation and updating to meet new challenges, yet it is fraying and fragmenting.

China Digital Policy

Timely Commentary & Analysis Jun 5, 2020

Artificial intelligence principles: Avoiding catastrophe

By Robert A. Manning

An urgent challenge for the coming decade is to forge a global consensus to operationalize widely-shared ethical principles, standards, and norms to govern the development and use of artificial intelligence.

Americas China

Issue briefs and reports Mar 27, 2020

AI, society and governance: An introduction

By Peter Engelke

AI’s increasing range of applications are having real-world consequences, both positive and negative. Those consequences, in turn, have animated spirited and at times emotional debates about how governments can craft policies to come to grips with a world increasingly shaped by AI.

China Digital Policy

Image: Cover image: ThisisEngineering RAEng, Unsplash