Trusted connectivity: A framework for a free, open, and connected world
Introduction
Global affairs are increasingly shaped by three important and overlapping trends: 1) the unprecedented and growing demand for trillions of dollars’ worth of global digital and physical infrastructure; 2) the ideological battle between democracy and autocracy for the best path forward to achieve peace and prosperity; and 3) the world’s response to changing climate. As democracies address the global demand for a free, open, and connected world while ensuring that local and global emissions targets are met, they need an organizing framework: the concept of “trusted connectivity.”
Democratic governments and institutions function with intricate checks and balances to ensure public trust. Unchallenged aggregation of power is antithetical to democracies and instinctively distrusted by their citizens. While holding unimaginable promise, today’s advancements in digital and physical infrastructure also embody new opportunities for malign actors in general, and authoritarian governments in particular, to accumulate and wield this power. Malign influence or control over data, communications, trade routes, energy, and transportation, all of which becomes possible when countries accept infrastructure investments from authoritarian states, could open potential vectors for coercion, disruption, or attack in times of crisis or conflict. In order to deny malign actors this influence over other countries’ infrastructure, democracies need to work together to ensure that the benefits and terms for the host country in building a bridge, port, rail, road, or telecommunications network are equitable and transparent, thereby leading to greater trust and security in addition to economic prosperity.
US President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., rallied the world’s leading democracies behind this cause at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in June 2021 in Cornwall, England.1White House, “FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership,” June 12, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/12/fact-sheet-president-biden-and-g7-leaders-launch-build-back-better-world-b3w-partnership/. The G7 nations, comprising the world’s leading free economies and free societies, proclaimed that, as they aim to meet global infrastructure demand, among other goals, their efforts will be guided by shared democratic values. For China, the standard-bearer of an alternate, illiberal model, infrastructure investment serves a different purpose: to increase China’s global economic leverage for its political gain.2Yifan Hu, Economic leverage, the key to a rising China’s new foreign affairs strategy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2013, https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/china/files/2013/09/Economic-leverage_the-key-to-a-rising-Chinas-new-foreign-affairs-strategy.pdf; Audrye Wong, “China’s economic statecraft under Xi Jinping,” Brookings Institution, January 22, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-economic-statecraft-under-xi-jinping/. To prevail in this competition, advance their values, and develop much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, the world’s leading democracies should adopt the principle of trusted connectivity.3This paragraph draws directly from Kaush Arha, “Rallying the world’s democracies with ‘trusted connectivity,’” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, July 13, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/rallying-the-worlds-democracies-with-trusted-connectivity/.
Defining trusted connectivity
During the author’s recent work at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) with US allies and partners on developing digital and physical infrastructure to counter exploitative Chinese efforts, a latent demand for greater trust in infrastructure was increasingly apparent.4This section draws directly from Arha, “Rallying the world’s.” The right response to this trend is the concept of trusted connectivity.5This concept was developed by the author and refined in discussions with officials in the United States and allied countries, including the Estonian government, which has adopted trusted connectivity as the theme of the September 2021 Tallinn Digital Summit. For more on the Tallinn Digital Summit, see “Tallinn Digital Summit,” https://www.digitalsummit.ee/.
Breaking down the term, “connectivity” encompasses the various forms of digital and physical infrastructure connecting the world. “Trust” in this case refers to public confidence, not just in the connectivity and technology performing as advertised, but also in the political and legal systems that inform and govern their operations. Trusted connectivity stems from political and legal systems committed to individual rights and dignity, as well as free and open societies and markets, as opposed to autocratic systems and state capitalism or mercantilism.
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Trusted connectivity embodies two fundamental attributes, one of technical assurance and the other of legal and political assurance. The first ensures that the technology applied adheres to widely agreed approvals, principles, and standards for safety, security, and other social concerns. For example, the US Food and Drug Administration’s approvals of COVID-19 vaccines or the adoption by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) of 5G standards provide confidence that those technologies are safe to use. The second attribute represents the legal and political systems that inform and govern the tools and technologies delivering connectivity. At its June summit, G7 and like-minded nations noted that their actions are “guided by our shared values of democracy, freedom, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights.”6White House, “FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders.”
These legal and political systems are a major point of divergence between democratic and authoritarian states. After the 2015 terrorist attack in San Bernardino, California, for example, US laws required the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to obtain a court order to compel Apple to access the iPhone of one of the domestic terrorists responsible for the attack; Apple was otherwise able to refuse the FBI’s request.7Until, of course, the FBI found a private vendor to break into the phone without Apple’s assistance. See: Ellen Nakashima and Reed Albergotti, “The FBI wanted to unlock the San Bernardino shooter’s iPhone. It turned to a little-known Australian firm,” Washington Post, April 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/14/azimuth-san-bernardino-apple-iphone-fbi/; Apple, Inc. “A Message to Our Customers,” February 16, 2016, https://www.apple.com/customer-letter/. In contrast, Chinese national laws demand unquestioning cooperation and obedience to the state by its citizens and companies. China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law requires that “[a]ny organization or citizen shall support, assist, and cooperate with state intelligence work in accordance with the law, and maintain the secrecy of all knowledge of state intelligence work.”8National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) Director William Evanina’s keynote remarks as prepared for delivery to the International Legal Technology Association’s (ILTA’s) LegalSEC Summit 2019, June 4, 2019, https://www.dni.gov/files/NCSC/documents/news/20190606-NCSC-Remarks-ILTA-Summit_2019.pdf. Furthermore, “[n]etwork operators shall provide technical support and assistance to public security organs and national security organs.” China’s 2014 counterespionage law says that “when the state security organ investigates and understands the situation of espionage and collects relevant evidence, the relevant organizations and individuals shall provide it truthfully and may not refuse.”9Arjun Kharpal, “Huawei says it would never hand data to China’s government. Experts say it wouldn’t have a choice,” CNBC, March 4, 2019 (updated March 5, 2019), https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/huawei-would-have-to-give-data-to-china-government-if-asked-experts.html. Businesses and individuals in China have little to no legal recourse to refuse the government when asked.
Concerns, reinforced by Chinese laws, that China may force its global companies to surveil customers and share their user data with the Chinese government have led a number of nations, from Australia to Romania to the United States, to exclude Huawei, China’s leading telecommunications provider, from their national telecommunications network. The exclusion was either explicit in naming Huawei or implied by granting entry to only trusted vendors. These concerns have also accentuated calls for wider scrutiny across all major Chinese connectivity projects—from ports to public utilities—and technologies, exacerbated by the often total lack of transparency associated with those projects and technologies.
The concept of trusted connectivity offers a democratic alternative to China’s offerings—one that can help build public trust in digital and physical infrastructure and technology connecting the globe.
Democracies need to deliver on global connectivity demand
“We have no option but China. Please offer us an alternative,” is a common refrain from public and private leaders of emerging nations in discussions with democracies about meeting their digital and physical infrastructure needs. Over the last two decades, the G7 and like-minded democratic nations, through their development assistance and economic engagement, have not appropriately prioritized the digital and physical infrastructure demands of emerging nations.10The US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which issues infrastructure grants to reinforce good governance in emerging nations, is a worthy exception but has failed to evolve with the times and burgeoning demand. During that same time span, Chinese state-backed enterprises have aggressively moved to invest in strategic sectors, including telecommunications, ports, energy, transport, and more, in China’s priority geographical regions. Chinese cost advantages, coupled with state subsidies and strong state engagement, have often led to an uneven field for market competition, with few cost-viable alternatives to Chinese offerings.
In light of recent trends, the recognition by the G7’s June summit of a global infrastructure demand of more than $40 trillion, and collective commitment to catalyze billions of dollars to meet the unmet demand, represents a timely initiative.11White House, “FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders.” In January, the European Parliament recognized that the “considerable economic potential between Europe, Asia and other continents remains untapped owing to lack of physical and digital infrastructure.”12European Parliament, “Connectivity and EU-Asia Relations,” P9_TA(2021)0016, January 21, 2021, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0016_EN.pdf. In July, the Council of the European Union adopted the recommendations for a Globally Connected Europe, highlighting the need for the European Union (EU) to pursue a geostrategic and global approach to connectivity aided by a unifying brand and narrative.13European Council, A globally connected Europe: Council approves conclusions, press release, July 12, 2021, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/07/12/a-globally-connected-europe-council-approves-conclusions/.
It is in the strategic national economic and security interests of the world’s democracies to deliver on global connectivity demand. Annual global infrastructure demand ranges from about $3 trillion to $5 trillion based on global economic forecasts and the need to meet the United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).14Jonathan Woetzel et al., “Bridging Infrastructure Gaps: Has the World Made Progress?” McKinsey & Company, October 13, 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/bridging-infrastructure-gaps-has-the-world-made-progress. Additional investments needed to stimulate economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the urgent need to make national economies more climate-friendly will substantially add to this general annual assessment. Providing the infrastructure investment necessary to meet this demand, guided by trusted connectivity, will aid democracies in the fight against rising authoritarianism and allow them to take economic advantage of emerging technology markets.
COVID-19 has also substantially hastened the maturation of the global digital economy. The global digital market—the transformation of which has been fueled by mobile devices, apps, and cloud services—is expected to more than double between 2020 and 2025, from $470 billion to $1.01 trillion.15Markets and Markets, “Digital Transformation Market by Technology (Cloud Computing, Big Data and Analytics, Mobility/Social Media, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence), Deployment Type, Vertical (BFSI, Retail, Education), and Region – Global Forecast to 2025,” July 2020, https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/digital-transformation-market-43010479.html. About $2.1 trillion of investment is required to reduce the global digital divide by half over the next five years.16Vaishali Rastogi et al., “A $2 Trillion Plan to Bring Two Billion More People into the Digital Age,” Boston Consulting Group, September 11, 2020, https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/plan-to-bring-high-speed-internet-access-to-two-billion-people. The financial technologies or Fintech market, which includes mobile payments, digital banking, insurance, wealth management, cryptocurrency, cross-border payment, etc., is projected to grow from $111 billion in 2019 to $158 billion in 2023.17Viviana Zhu, China’s Fintech: The End of the Wild West, Institut Montaigne, April 2021, https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/publications/chinas-fintech-end-wild-west. The subsea cable market is projected to grow from $10.3 billion in 2019 to $22 billion in 2025 and up to $34.6 billion by 2027.18Business Wire, “Global Submarine Cable System Market (2020 to 2025) – Increasing Demand for HVDC Submarine Power Cables Presents Strong Opportunities,” March 17, 2020, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200317005632/en/Global-Submarine-Cable-System-Market-2020-to-2025—Increasing-Demand-for-HVDC-Submarine-Power-Cables-Presents-Strong-Opportunities—ResearchAndMarkets.com.
Indonesia and India represent the two fastest digitizing nations among mature and emerging economies, with plenty more room to grow. India, in particular, represents one of the largest and fastest growing markets of digital customers, with more than 1.2 billion enrolled in the world’s largest unique-digital-identity program (Aadhar), a similar number of wireless phone users, and more than 560 million Internet users and counting.19Noshir Kaka et al., Digital India: Technology to transform a connected nation, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/digital%20india%20technology%20to%20transform%20a%20connected%20nation/digital-india-technology-to-transform-a-connected-nation-full-report.pdf.
A cloud and edge computing revolution is underway, and its full range of economically and socially transformative impacts are not yet fully determined. The EU’s strategy toward a European Gigabit Society anticipates that “[w]ithin the next 10 years, up to 50 billion objects, from homes to cars and watches, are expected to be connected worldwide—the great majority of them wirelessly. Transformative solutions based on…connectivity—including cloud computing, Internet of Things, high performance computing, and big data analytics—will transform business processes and influence social interactions.”20European Commission, “Communication – Connectivity for a Competitive Digital Single Market – Towards a European Gigabit Society,” September 14, 2016, https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/communication-connectivity-competitive-digital-single-market-towards-european-gigabit-society.
We live in a connected world, and the rate of connectivity is accelerating exponentially.21FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018, H.R. 302 — 115th Congress (2017-2019), 2nd Session, https://www.dfc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-08/BILLS-115hr302_BUILDAct2018.pdf. Increasingly, connectivity represents the neural network of the global economy, politics, and social exchanges. Citizens around the world are becoming increasingly integrated with one another through emerging digital and physical infrastructure—communicating, learning, exchanging ideas, and forging relationships. Consequently, it is of the utmost importance that the capabilities and delivery of global connectivity embody the public’s trust. Free World democracies need to band together to deliver connectivity that is informed by and advances universal values of human dignity, freedom, and the pursuit of happiness. Trusted connectivity represents the forward defense of democracies amidst resurgent authoritarianism and mercantilism.22This paragraph draws directly from Arha, “Rallying the world’s democracies with ‘trusted connectivity.’”
Delivering on trusted connectivity
The United States, Europe, Indo-Pacific Quad (the United States, Australia, India, and Japan), and the Free World’s interests and values are closely entwined with the structure and trajectory of trusted connectivity around the globe. The Free World will need to draw upon its core strengths of entrepreneurship and innovation, fueled by the ingenuity of free markets and free societies, to meet the demand for trusted connectivity. Public policy across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is converging to address the aspirations of trusted connectivity. There are strong, shared, and foundational transatlantic and Indo-Pacific interests in ensuring that trusted connectivity preserves the international rules-based order advancing free societies and free markets.
The G7, the Quad, and like-minded nations should undertake eight reinforcing, concerted actions to deliver trusted connectivity:
- Expedite the execution of a US – Europe trusted connectivity agreement. The EU has prioritized entering into a connectivity partnership with the United States. The United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy and the EU’s Globally Connected Europe initiative share similar lines of efforts including energy, digital, infrastructure/transportation, and governance/people-to-people. The EU has already entered into connectivity agreements with two other Indo-Pacific Quad nations—Japan and India.23US Department of State, A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision, November 4, 2019, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf; European Council, “A globally connected Europe.”
The US-Europe trusted connectivity agreement will have great import in both substance and symbolism for leading European and Indo-Pacific nations to convey a common cause in advancing trusted connectivity across the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. The US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) presents an effective platform to coordinate and drive the execution of a US-Europe trusted connectivity agreement.24White House, “U.S.-EU Summit Statement,” June 15, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/15/u-s-eu-summit-statement/.
- Forge Trusted Connectivity Partnerships with emerging economy nations: The G7, Quad, and like-minded nations should enter into trusted connectivity partnerships with all willing emerging nations to ensure the widest possible acceptance of the major tenets of trusted connectivity. Partnerships may be memorialized through joint statements, memoranda of understanding (MoUs), or similarly accepted means to convey shared values and interests underlying connectivity investments. Partnerships should convey enhanced public and private investments, technical assistance, and a variety of means to strengthen institutions in order to deliver trusted connectivity.
- Increase and prioritize trusted connectivity investments in meeting global digital and physical infrastructure demand: The US Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act, which established the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with a $60 billion annual investment capitalization, represents a step in the right direction.25FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018. The EU is in the process of establishing a similar investment facility. The Three Seas nations in Central and Eastern Europe have established a public/private investment fund of more than $1 billion to improve connectivity across the region.26From the Baltic Sea (north) to the Black and Adriatic Seas (south), these countries are Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Croatia, Romania, and Bulgaria.
In addition to increasing investments for global connectivity, equal or greater dividends may be obtained by improved coordination and prioritization of existing resources and initiatives. US-coordinated actions across the DFC, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Export-Import Bank of the United States, USAID, and US Trade and Development Agency can mobilize more than $100 billion in annual public investments to leverage substantially more private capital to meet global connectivity demand. Similarly, EU-coordinated actions across the European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Commission (EC) Directorate-General for International Partnerships, EC Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, and any future investment facility can generate substantially more than €100 billion to leverage private investments.
It is imprudent for democracies with market economies to match public funds dollar for dollar with Chinese state capitalism. Instead, the democracies’ public investments should be directed to mobilize private investments in global connectivity, where free market democracies hold advantage over China and other autocratic nations.
Individual and collective public investments by G7 and Quad nations, with improved coordination and prioritization, can mobilize $500 billion to $1 trillion, which can leverage four times as much private investment for global connectivity. - Brand and communicate existing public and private trusted connectivity investments in global digital and physical infrastructure: The G7, Quad, and like-minded nations should better brand and communicate the full range of public and private investments from their respective nations to facilitate global connectivity.
It is awkward and misleading to compare US, European, Japanese, and others’ public funds to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encompasses the whole of the Chinese party-state-directed economy. However, democratic nations already invest substantially. Japan is often the largest source of foreign direct investment in the nations comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). One of the largest natural resource investments in Africa is the offshore natural gas project in Mozambique, developed by a French Total-led consortium. US tech giants Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft are investing billions in cloud services and associated technologies across the globe.
A more complete and better communicated picture of Free World public and private investments in global connectivity will engender greater balance and confidence in democracies’ ability to deliver global digital and physical infrastructure and render a more accurate and complete picture of investments by democracies and autocracies toward global connectivity. - Persuade the World Bank, International Finance Corporation, and regional development banks to adopt trusted connectivity tenets in increased digital and physical infrastructure investments: The G7, Quad, and like-minded nations should persuade the World Bank, International Finance Corporation, Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank, and Inter-American Development Bank to prioritize global connectivity investments through the trusted connectivity framework.
Democracies are the greatest contributors to these multilateral development banks. As such, these institutions should not only squarely reflect the democratic tenets of trusted connectivity in their investments, but their efforts should also be recognized as part of democracies’ ability to deliver on global connectivity demand. The World Bank and its sister regional banks should prioritize investments in technologies and systems that are more transparent and originating from countries with legal systems that are more transparent and equitable, to ensure that these technologies and the systems that support them are “trusted.” Ironically, autocratic and mercantilist China has on occasion been more effective at mobilizing investments from these institutions to its end than the world’s democracies. It will be prudent for the World Bank’s Moonshot Africa initiative for digital transformation of Africa’s economy to embody the tenets of trusted connectivity. Similarly, it will be prudent for the Asian Development Bank to accord equal measure or more to non-China centric regional infrastructure initiatives, embracing trusted connectivity. - Help nations better negotiate connectivity investments from China and other autocratic nations: China will remain a force in global infrastructure development. It enjoys substantial comparative advantages deriving from infrastructure overcapacity, economies of scale, state subsidy, and aggressive state backing.
The G7, Quad, and like-minded nations should undertake a comprehensive coordinated effort to better prepare host nations to negotiate transparent and equitable terms for Chinese investments in global connectivity. This effort should include assisting host nations in enacting regulatory reform to ensure a level playing field for infrastructure investments and improving transparency and alleviating corruption in infrastructure procurement. The US Trade and Development Agency’s (USTDA’s) Global Procurement Initiative (GPI) toolkit offers tailored support to public officials in emerging markets to integrate life-cycle cost and best value determination in their procurement practices to ensure best value determination in a fair and transparent manner.27“Global Procurement Initiative,” US Trade and Development Agency, accessed August 25, 2021, https://ustda.gov/ustda-special-initiative/global-procurement-initiative/. - Develop a trusted connectivity cybersecurity coalition to facilitate a systemic resilient response to mitigate increasingly sophisticated malign cyber operations: A global economy with a high pace of digitization is increasingly vulnerable to malign cyber operations with widespread and devastating impact, as evidenced by the cases of Colonial Pipeline, SolarWinds, Microsoft Exchange, Kaseya, etc.28William Turton and Kartikay Mehrotra, “Hackers Breached Colonial Pipeline Using Compromised Password,” Bloomberg, June 4, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-04/hackers-breached-colonial-pipeline-using-compromised-password?sref=a9fBmPFG; Isabella Jibilian and Katie Canales, “The US is readying sanctions against Russia over the SolarWinds cyber attack. Here’s a simple explanation of how the massive hack happened and why it’s such a big deal,” Business Insider, April 15, 2021, https://www.businessinsider.com/solarwinds-hack-explained-government-agencies-cyber-security-2020-12; Eric Tucker, “Microsoft Exchange hack caused by China, US and allies say,” July 19, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/microsoft-exchange-hack-biden-china-d533f5361cbc3374fdea58d3fb059f35; Zack Whittaker, “Kaseya hack floods hundreds of companies with ransomware,” TechCrunch, July 5, 2021, https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/05/kaseya-hack-flood-ransomware/. Cyber risks and vulnerabilities in a fast-expanding digital economy necessitate a coordinated, systemic response from leading democracies that are committed to a free, open, and connected world.
The G7 and Quad, working with like-minded nations, should foster a trusted connectivity cybersecurity coalition to facilitate a shared understanding of cyber threats and vulnerabilities, and develop a coordinated set of measures for cyber resilience and security. The NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence and the new EU Cybersecurity Competence Centre and Network may coordinate with their counterparts to establish a trusted connectivity cybersecurity coalition for coordinated resilience and response to malign cyber operations. - Develop a trusted connectivity data governance coalition to foster complementarities in cross-border data flows and governance among like-minded nations: Data is the prime commodity of the digital age. Consequently, cross-border data flows define and drive the global digital economy and may be more critical to its success than even the free flow of capital and labor. However, rules governing the exchange of data across borders are still underdeveloped and more complex than those governing flows of capital and labor.
The G7, Quad, and like-minded nations, building upon their ongoing activities, may utilize a trusted connectivity framework to coordinate on a trusted data-sharing architecture between data providers and data users for a free, open, and connected world.
Trusted connectivity brings together ongoing connectivity and trust initiatives
Trusted connectivity offers a useful framework that binds together several similarly motivated, existing bilateral and regional connectivity and trust initiatives.
Connectivity
A wide range of connectivity initiatives span the globe to meet regional and global digital and physical infrastructure needs, in part to better position themselves to respond to China’s aggressive BRI and Digital Silk Road (DSR). Europe and Asia have been among the leaders in connectivity initiatives. These initiatives implicitly incorporate many precepts of trusted connectivity.
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