Tue, Jul 7, 2020

Will AI and robots kill jobs?

New technologies are being rolled out across the world at a pace that outstrips our ability to comprehend their implications. Concerns over the death of jobs may be overblown, but the need to understand and mitigate the risks presented by emerging technologies remains.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Robert A. Manning

Tue, Jul 7, 2020

National security impact

Technological change throughout history shaped and reshaped the strategy, tactics, and the character of war. Today’s emerging technologies have the potential to revolutionize warfighting, while also posing new challenges to strategic stability across increasingly contested global commons—air, sea, cyber, and space.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Robert A. Manning

Tue, Jul 7, 2020

II. The governance conundrum

As the challenges posed by emerging disruptive technologies become clear, so too does the troubling deficit of global governance. The fraying of existing institutions and the resurgence of major-power competition only exacerbate this governance challenge.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Robert A. Manning

Tue, Jul 7, 2020

AI: preventing the coming storm

Developing ethical principles, standards, and norms governing AI is perhaps the most imperative governance challenge for the coming decade. In particular, the risks posed by AI and autonomous weapons require a rethinking of what constitutes a durable framework for strategic stability.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Robert A. Manning

Gulf States - Netanyahu & Qaboos

Tue, Jul 7, 2020

Israel’s growing ties with the Arab Gulf states

Once thought to be irreconcilable adversaries, Israel and the Gulf states have grown closer in recent years. What started as under-the-table intelligence sharing designed to counter Iran’s ambitions throughout the Middle East has morphed into greater cooperation not only on security but also on economic, political, and cultural issues.

Issue Brief by Jonathan H. Ferziger, Gawdat Bahgat

Israel Politics & Diplomacy

Tue, Jul 7, 2020

Global and regional trade systems

In the context of growing concerns over the global trading system, intra-regional accords have proliferated, in part as a hedge against US economic nationalism and global uncertainty. Many states are also looking to increase ties with the Asia-Pacific as the key driver of global growth.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Robert A. Manning

Tue, Jun 30, 2020

Assessing Indian digital trade policies: Will they support a $5 trillion economy?

Trade policy has come to the fore as a growing number of countries restrict exports of critical medical supplies to ensure sufficient availability for patients in-country. In this crisis, international collaboration to keep trade flowing has been limited and has not prevented many countries from imposing new trade restrictions.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Mark Linscott

Digital Policy Economy & Business

Mon, Jun 29, 2020

Ukrainian business leaders advocated better economic policy and rule of law: A report card

During his presidency, President Zelenskyy promised to bring major reform to Ukraine. One year on, what reforms have been achieved, and what obstacles remain for Ukraine?

Report by Anders Åslund

Corruption Democratic Transitions
Breton- on digital sovereignty

Mon, Jun 22, 2020

The European Union and the search for digital sovereignty: Building “Fortress Europe” or preparing for a new world?

However the EU redefines sovereignty post-COVID-19—including technological or digital sovereignty—the impact will not be limited to Europe and European companies.

Issue Brief by Frances Burwell, Kenneth Propp

Digital Policy Economy & Business

Thu, Jun 18, 2020

An affordable defense of Asia

US military advantages over China are steadily eroding. Therefore, in this inaugural report for Forward Defense, T.X. Hammes crafts a new strategy and corresponding operational concepts which leverage geography and emerging technology to improve the US and allied warfighting posture in Asia.

Report by T.X. Hammes

China Conflict
An elevated view of Saudi Arabia

Wed, Jun 17, 2020

Assessing Saudi Vision 2030: A 2020 review

Executive summary When global oil prices collapsed in summer 2014, Saudi Arabia confronted one of the most daunting economic challenges of its modern history. Upon ascending to the throne the following year, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and his son Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (now the crown prince) responded by developing an ambitious […]

In-Depth Research & Reports by Stephen Grand, Katherine Wolff

Economy & Business Energy Transitions

Mon, Jun 15, 2020

The reverse cascade: Enforcing security on the global IoT supply chain

The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds and it affects us all. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. Many IoT devices are manufactured abroad at low cost with little consideration for security. How can we secure these devices, especially those manufactured outside the United States?

In-Depth Research & Reports by Nathaniel Kim, Trey Herr, and Bruce Schneier

Cybersecurity Internet of Things

Fri, Jun 5, 2020

Operation Carthage: How a Tunisian company conducted influence operations in African presidential elections

A Tunisia-based company operated a sophisticated digital campaign involving multiple social media platforms and websites in an attempt to influence the country’s 2019 presidential election, as well as other recent elections in Africa. In an exclusive investigation that began in September 2019, the DFRLab uncovered dozens of online assets with connections to Tunisian digital communications firm UReputation. On June 5, 2020, after conducting its own investigation, Facebook announced it had taken down more than 900 assets affiliated with the UReputation operation, including 182 user accounts, 446 pages, and 96 groups, as well as 209 Instagram accounts. The operation also involved the publication of multiple Francophone websites, some going back more than five years.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Andy Carvin, Luiza Bandeira, Graham Brookie, Iain Robertson, Nika Aleksejeva, Alyssa Kann, Kanishk Karan, Ayushman Kaul, Tessa Knight, Jean le Roux, Roman Osadchik, Esteban Ponce de Leon

Africa Disinformation

Fri, Jun 5, 2020

New challenges and dwindling returns for Russia’s national champions, Gazprom and Rosneft

As Russia’s economic future is clouded by negative demographic trends, new energy technologies and efficiencies, volatile commodity prices, and the likelihood of continued Western sanctions, Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s two natural resource champions face a comeuppance: international competition, global and regional market access, capital investment, and revenue/cost efficiency.

Report by Anders Åslund & Steven Fisher

Economy & Business Geopolitics & Energy Security

Tue, Jun 2, 2020

Geometries of deterrence: Assessing defense arrangements in Europe’s northeast

Nations in Europe’s northeast cooperate through a variety of multilateral security and defense arrangements. “Geometries of Deterrence” assesses how these arrangements individually and collectively contribute to deterrence and defense in Northeastern Europe.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Hans Binnendijk and Conor Rodihan

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Mon, Jun 1, 2020

Executive summary: The virus and global order

The COVID-19 pandemic is having dramatic effects on everyday life, but its geopolitical implications could prove to be even more profound. The pandemic is exacerbating and unleashing pressure points in the global order, including intensified US-China competition, that could fundamentally reshape geopolitics.

Issue Brief by Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel

China Coronavirus

Mon, Jun 1, 2020

Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?

The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed pressure points in the global order and threatens to unravel the rules-based international system. This paper examines the geopolitical implications of the pandemic by identifying key strategic shocks and tensions exacerbated by the virus. It also identifies uncertainties for the global order and provides policy recommendations for how the United States and its allies should address the pandemic.

Issue Brief by Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel

China Coronavirus

Tue, May 26, 2020

European energy security and the critical role of transatlantic energy cooperation

Transatlantic cooperation is essential to European energy security, which is and should remain a key national security priority for the United States. European energy security is crucial for the maintenance of a strong European economy and for European political stability, both of which are in the best interests of the United States. This report recommends that the United States and the EU focus their energy cooperation in several areas that will benefit the EU’s efforts to meet climate targets and that, at the same time, will also bolster energy security.

Report by Richard L. Morningstar, András Simonyi, Olga Khakova, Jennifer T. Gordon

Energy & Environment Europe & Eurasia

Sat, May 16, 2020

Downstream oil theft: Countermeasures and good practices

Downstream oil theft has become a global problem. Since most of the world’s energy systems still rely on oil, fuel smugglers are nearly always able to find markets for their goods. Moreover, as oil is not inherently illegal, it is generally an easy product to move, buy, and sell. Profits from oil theft are frequently used to fund terrorism and other illegal activities.

Report by Dr. David Soud with contributing authors Dr. Ian Ralby and Rohini Ralby

Energy & Environment Energy Markets & Governance
Destroyed village in Lebanon

Wed, May 13, 2020

Counting the cost: Avoiding another war between Israel and Hezbollah

The Atlantic Council has released a new report, “Counting the Cost: Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah,” authored by Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion.

In-Depth Research & Reports by Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion

Conflict Crisis Management