In-depth research and reports

How Europe can escape its structural energy weakness amid great power competition

By Ben Judah, Tim Sahay, Shahin Vallée, and Francis Shin

This report argues that the EU will need to engage in deep structural and political reforms to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Global Foresight 2024

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2024. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2024 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

The top risks and opportunities for 2024

By Peter Engelke, Paul Saffo

2023 was marked by war in the Middle East and in Europe. What else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

Design questions in the software liability debate

By Maia Hamin, Sara Ann Brackett, and Trey Herr, with Andy Kotz

Software liability—resurgent in the policy debate since its mention in the 2023 US National Cybersecurity Strategy—describes varied potential structures to create legal accountability for vendors of insecure software. This report identifies key design questions for such regimes and tracks their discussion through the decades-long history of the debate.

Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Final report

By Whitney M. McNamara, Peter Modigliani, Matthew MacGregor, and Eric Lofgren*

The DoD must accelerate defense innovation adoption from the leading edge of the private sector. This report has ten recommendations to do so and features eight vignettes that explore how these actions may play out in practice.

Developing an agenda for international financial institutions and central bank digital currency

By Greg Brownstein and Utsav Saksena

Is the emerging architecture appropriate, effective, and sufficient to manage the global transition to digital money? This report focuses on three domains: financial stability, development and financial inclusion, and global payment systems.

Governance reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions

By Sienna Nordquist and Joel Christoph

The paper emphasizes the need for a governance reform roadmap at the IMF and World Bank focusing on quota reallocation, diplomatic efforts, and a commitment to diversity and democratic principles.

Navigating subsidy reform at the WTO

By Sona Muzikarova and Sophia Busch

The legitimacy of the World Trade Organization is in question. The United States and its allies, and leaders in the organization, can better wield its potential to address global issues, specifically to reduce inefficiencies from fragmentation caused by subsidies.

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order

By Elisabeth Braw

Russia’s dark fleet poses a significant threat to maritime security, forming the basis of Moscow’s grayzone aggression against Western institutions.

False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

By Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, Lauren Van Metre

Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. This paper showcases why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies.

Climate change prioritization in low-income and developing countries

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Henry Evans

This policy brief examines the impact of climate change on education, health, and other development priorities for low-income and developing countries.

Navigating Sweden’s NATO membership: Insights for political and operational adaptation

By Viltaute Zarembaite, Christopher Skaluba, Ann Marie Dailey

Sweden is on the cusp of joining Finland as NATO’s newest members, bridging a crucial gap in the region’s security architecture and creating new opportunities for closer security cooperation. Once Sweden is in NATO, the Baltic Sea will be a geographically coherent strategic space—or, in more casual parlance, a “NATO lake.”

How to hold the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable in European courts

By Gissou Nia, Celeste Kmiotek, Lisandra Novo, Alyssa T. Yamamoto

While there are no viable domestic routes toward accountability within Iran, national judicial systems in other states present an alternative path to justice. This report examines prospects for initiating prosecutions against IRI perpetrators in European jurisdictions.

Evolving cooperative security approaches for tomorrow’s realities

By John T. Watts

US security cooperation, which are military aid activities led or executed by the US Department of Defense, is immensely valuable if done right and can help the United States achieve its goal from the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) by building a strong coalition of allies to confront shared challenges.

Up for grabs? The Western Balkans’ aging energy systems place it between East and West

By Aleksandar Kovacevic

The Western Balkans’ hydropower can help Europe’s pursuit of energy security. Failure to act on this potential brings significant costs.

The future of clean energy in the Americas

By Wazim Mowla, Diego Area

LAC countries are facing major challenges in their ability to develop renewable energy projects, expand low-emission energy systems, and fill existing technical and financing gaps that hinder regional energy security. A key takeaway to come out of the Summit Implementation Roundtable was that the US-Caribbean Partnership to Address the Climate Crisis 2030 (PACC 2030) has the potential to advance clean energy goals in the Caribbean and become a blueprint to address similar challenges in Latin America.

A security strategy for the Black Sea

By Atlantic Council Task Force on Black Sea Security

This report outlines the strategic setting, regional challenges and threats, key planning assumptions, risk and risk mitigation, and finally DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) based recommendations for enhancing security and stability in the Black Sea region.