In-depth research and reports

Undermining Ukraine

By Roman Osadchuk, Andy Carvin

From the very start of the war, the Kremlin emphasized demoralizing Ukrainian audiences and destroying their will to fight. Building on daily monitoring of the Kremlin media ecosystem, this report analyzes Russia’s attempts to undermine Ukraine by targeting local, regional, and global audiences since February 2022.

Narrative warfare

By Nika Aleksejeva, Andy Carvin, Eto Buziashvili

In the weeks and months leading up to Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin and pro-Kremlin media employed false and misleading narratives to justify military action against Ukraine, mask the Kremlin’s operational planning, and deny any responsibility for the coming war. Dive into a full accounting of the road to war.

The transformative power of reduced wait times at the US-Mexico border: Economic benefits for border states

By Alejandro Brugués Rodríguez, Noé Arón Fuentes Flores, David Gaytan, John Gibson, Mayra Maldonado, Jason Marczak, Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, José Ángel Moreno, Roberto Ransom, and Ignacia Ulloa-Peters

Atlantic Council’s new data shows that a mere 10-minute reduction in wait times – without any additional action – can create thousands of Mexican jobs, grow the gross domestic product (GDP) of several Mexican states, and generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in new spending in the United States.

Full throttle in neutral: China’s new security architecture for the Middle East 

By Tuvia Gering

This report addresses two widely held beliefs about the nature of China’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that ought to be revisited in light of notable developments. First, while it is widely assumed that Beijing’s interests in the region are limited to energy security and economic ties, this report will show how cooperation has […]

China Pathfinder: H2 2022 update

By GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group

In the second half of 2022, China veered from one extreme to the other, with carefully choreographed control followed by sudden turmoil. Nevertheless, China’s economic weakness is pushing leadership to strike a more business-friendly tone.

Avoiding the success trap: Toward policy for open-source software as infrastructure

By Stewart Scott, Sara Ann Brackett, Trey Herr, Maia Hamin with the Open Source Policy Network

Open-source software (OSS) sits at the center of almost every digital technology moving the world since the early 1980s—laptops, cellphones, widespread internet connectivity, cloud computing, social media, automation, all the rainbow flavors of e-commerce, and even secure communications and anti-censorship tools.

Implementing NATO’s Strategic Concept on China

By Hans Binnendijk and Daniel S. Hamilton

Allies made it clear that they consider Russia their most immediate and direct threat. Yet they also made headlines by addressing challenges emanating from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Netanyahu’s coalition isn’t built to last: Expect high sparks within and fragile prospects for Israel’s incoming government

By Shalom Lipner

Competing agendas between the members of Israel’s incoming government portend another unsustainable partnership.

Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

By Francis Shin, Ben Judah

A new, more dangerous form of kleptocracy has arisen since the end of the Cold War, and the transatlantic community—hobbled by outdated, cliched images of what kleptocracy looks like, and by siloed, reactive regulatory and enforcement systems—isn’t equipped to handle it. A Transatlantic Anti-Corruption Council could coordinate anti-corruption reforms.

China and the new globalization

By Franklin D. Kramer

The unitary globalized economy no longer exists. Driven in significant part by security considerations, a new and more diverse globalization is both required and being built. The transition is ongoing, and its final form is yet to be determined.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2023 

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Energy investment in a time of inflation

By Charles Lichfield, Joseph Webster

This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees.

The 2023 Global Energy Agenda

By Landon Derentz, Christine Suh, Ameya Hadap, Paul Kielstra (Editors)

The third edition of the Global Energy Agenda provides context for the year that has passed. It features a survey of thought leaders in the energy sector, as well as a series of essays by the leading figures in energy, to set the energy agenda for 2023.

Welcome to 2033: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 160 experts

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight gurus on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the prospect of nuclear proliferation to the probability of great-power war to the potential for more global volatility.

The Global Foresight 2023 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2022, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

How allied Sweden and Finland can secure Northern Europe 

By Anna Wieslander, Eric Adamson, Jesper Lehto

NATO is approaching its ninth round of enlargement. The accession of Sweden and Finland—two solid democracies and defenders of the international-rules based order—into the Alliance will strengthen the core of the transatlantic community.

The top 23 risks and opportunities for 2023

The war in Ukraine changed the world in 2022. How will it continue reshaping global affairs in 2023 and what else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

A next-generation agenda for US-ROK-Japan cooperation

By Lauren D. Gilbert, Kyoko Imai

Trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea has proved challenging over the years, owing largely to historical tensions. As a result, this project has sought perspectives from next-generation leaders of the three countries to define areas where targeted, flexible, and informal cooperative arrangements can provide clear mutual benefit to all.

Taiwan’s engagement with the world: Evaluating past hurdles, present complications, and future prospects

By Jessica Drun

Since Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took office in May 2016, relations across the Taiwan Strait have grown increasingly tense—and even more so following the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022.