Syria Program Commentary & Analysis

SyriaSource

Oct 23, 2018

What is the future of HTS in Idlib?

By Hosam al-Jablawi

In mid-September, Russia and Turkey signed an agreement regarding Idlib province in northern Syria. The agreement establishes a nine to twelve mile demilitarized zone (DMZ) between the Syrian regime and opposition forces along Idlib’s border. As part of the deal, Turkey pledged to find a solution to extremist groups in the province, withdraw heavy weapons from the region, and evacuate any presence of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—an independent Salafi-jihadi group—fighters or moderate elements of the Syrian opposition by mid-October.

Syria

SyriaSource

Oct 10, 2018

Discontent among Assyrians in Syria’s northeast

By Ammar Hammou and Madeline Edwards for Syria Direct

Prominent Assyrian Christian writer and dissident Souleman Yusph was in his home in northeastern Syria’s Qamishli last Sunday night when local security personnel reportedly burst in, arrested him, and carried off his laptop and cell phones with them. By the following Thursday night, sixty-one year old Yusph—a vocal critic of the majority-Kurdish Self-Administration that controls the vast majority of […]

Syria

MENASource

Oct 9, 2018

A case in context: From the Lebanese Civil War to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon

By Faysal Itani and Anthony Elghossain

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon has just heard the closing arguments in Ayyash et. al, on September 21, 2018; a case in which prosecutors charged four members or associates of Hezbollah with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. Thirteen years after the assassination, judges are in the process of making their judgement.

Middle East Syria

SyriaSource

Oct 4, 2018

Escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Syria

By Rachel Rossi

The Syrian war continues to exacerbate long-simmering tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation is further complicated by recurring Hezbollah and Iranian drone surveillance and targeted air strikes along the Israel-Syria border. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah is willing to enter into a protracted conflict; both sides realize that they’ve reached a point of “mutually assured heavy damage.”

Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 28, 2018

Lessons learned? Canada’s problematic Syrian resettlement process

By Gareth Chantler

In late 2015, Canada’s Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau was elected, in part on a promise to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees. The Liberal Party leveraged the ‘success’ into branding opportunities—championing ‘the Canadian model’ at home and abroad. They delivered, but, in their haste, the limitations of Canada’s foreign missions were exposed as problematic with inefficient policies and practices. Without political pressure to learn from these mistakes, it is unclear if Canada’s policies for processing large numbers of refugees will improve.

Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 27, 2018

Three years later: the evolution of Russia’s military intervention in Syria

By Joseph Daher

Syria was the first time that Moscow had launched a major military operation outside its borders since the end of the Cold War. Backed by Russian air power and Iranian militias on the ground, the Syrian regime has been able to topple armed opposition strongholds and assert control over all of the country’s major cities. While initially supporting its Syrian ally politically through the UN Security Council and economically through at-cost weapons deals, by adding its military support Russia dramatically turned the tide in favor of the Assad regime and changed the trajectory of the conflict.

Russia Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 26, 2018

How the Kurds navigate fluid and convenient allies: the Syrian regime and the US

By Sam Fouad

With reports that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Council (SDC)—the political wing of the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—is meeting with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad for diplomatic talks, the possibility of greater Kurdish representation, or even autonomy, in Syria has found an unlikely boost.

Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 26, 2018

Trump, Mattis, Bolton: on the same page?

By Frederic C. Hof

Recent remarks by National Security Advisor John Bolton suggesting that the United States will maintain a presence—presumably military—in Syria until the departure of Iranian-led forces from that ruined country have inspired a flurry of media commentary, questioning, and speculation.

Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 20, 2018

The long war in Idlib

By Faysal Itani

A Syrian regime offensive on Idlib province has been avoided for now, through a Russian-Turkish agreement. This is a much-needed reprieve for the beleaguered people of Idlib. Turkey, Russia, and the United States are likely relieved as well.

Syria

SyriaSource

Sep 19, 2018

Military developments in Idlib

By Clara Belk, Daniel Kamlarz, and Aisha Han

Damascus’s escalations in the rebel-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria in August and early September preempted tensions between the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

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