Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Principal research areas

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary & quick analysis

Past events

In the news

In the News

Nov 17, 2022

Brzezinski and Scheunemann in El Mercurio: NATO reactions to the missile strikes in Poland (in Spanish)

On November 17, TSI NRSF Ian Brzezinski and TSI Deputy Director Leah Scheunemann were quoted on NATO reactions in the wake of wayward missile strikes in Poland (text in Spanish).

Europe & Eurasia Missile Defense

In the News

Nov 17, 2022

Garlauskas Interviewed on “Intelligence Matters”

On November 16, IPSI Nonresident Senior Fellow Markus Garlauskas appeared on an episode of “Intelligence Matters” on CBS News. Host Michael Morell, former acting director of the CIA, interviewed Garlauskas on the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Garlauskas spoke on North Korea’s potential use of weapons for operational missions, discussed the declared US […]

East Asia Indo-Pacific

In the News

Nov 15, 2022

Deni in The Conversation and Al Jazeera: quoted on NATO’s article 4 and 5 commitments

On November 15, TSI NRSF John Deni was quoted on NATO Articles 4 and 5 commitments in the wake of missiles straying into Poland. Quotes from the article were also picked up by Al Jazeera.

Europe & Eurasia Missile Defense

In the News

Nov 1, 2022

Aoki Comments on North Korean Missile Launches in NK News

On September 30, IPSI Nonresident Senior Fellow Naoko Aoki offered comments in an NK News article on “What to make of North Korea’s missile launching spree around Harris visit.” Aoki suggests that, while events such as Harris’ visit to Seoul and the inter-Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) may have motivated North Korea to conduct missile tests, […]

Indo-Pacific Korea

In the News

Oct 28, 2022

Zysk in High North News: Russia’s nuclear drills and escalatory risks (in Norwegian)

On October 28, TSI NRSF Katarzyna Zysk was quoted in High North News discussing the implications of Russia’s latest nuclear drills on possible escalatory risks.

Europe & Eurasia Northern Europe

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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.