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New Atlanticist

Oct 30, 2018

As Angela Merkel begins her exit, what next?

By Jörn Fleck and Alex Baker

No matter who succeeds Merkel as leader of the CDU, it is difficult to imagine that person would be content with Merkel staying on as chancellor until her terms ends in 2021. That person will want the opportunity to connect with voters and chart his or her own course for the party.

Elections Germany

UkraineAlert

Oct 30, 2018

10 Names Russia Hopes You’ll Never Know

By Vitalii Rybak

Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Moscow and its proxies have put dozens of Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar political prisoners behind bars. However, there are many other people in Russian prisons who have been incarcerated for their unwillingness to bow down to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. The fabrication of these cases has been refined […]

Russia Ukraine

UkraineAlert

Oct 30, 2018

Five ways to entice Ukrainians to come home

By Andy Hunder

Approximately five million Ukrainians, roughly 25 percent of the country’s economically active population, work abroad.

Macroeconomics Migration

New Atlanticist

Oct 30, 2018

Rome’s options in budget battle with Brussels

By David A. Wemer

The Italian proposal violates a European Commission stipulation that budget deficits must decline year-on-year. Instead, under this proposal, Rome’s deficit would continue to grow.

Eurozone International Organizations

IranSource

Oct 30, 2018

The Future of the Dollar in a Post-Iran Deal World

By Michael B. Greenwald

The European Union’s announcement in September 2018 that it would begin to create a special payments channel with Iran in response to the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) once again raises the question of the role of the US dollar (USD) in the international economic order. Under the surface of […]

Iran

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

SyriaSource

Oct 29, 2018

In Istanbul, geopolitical maneuvering but no progress

By Aaron Stein & Faysal Itani

A summit held in Istanbul on Saturday failed to produce any breakthroughs in the core disagreements over the Syrian conflict. It did however have notable geopolitical implications that affect each of the four attendees Russia, Germany, and France, and Turkey – two of whom are new to an effort created to manage Russia and Turkish interests in Syria. Significantly, the United States took no part in the meeting despite the presence of two major European allies and NATO partner, Turkey.

Syria Turkey

SyriaSource

Oct 29, 2018

Strategic change and its challenges

By Frederic C. Hof

During the Obama administration, Syria was treated as a two-part puzzle divided by the Euphrates River. East of the Euphrates, the objective was to degrade and destroy ISIS (ISIL, Daesh, Islamic State). The strategy was to support the anti-ISIS combat operations of a Kurdish (eventually Kurdish-dominated) militia with weapons, ammunition, supplies, and advisors on the ground, and combat aircraft aloft. Although the Trump administration believes it can take credit for having accelerated the anti-ISIS campaign, the objective and strategy in the east have remained constant.

Syria

IranSource

Oct 29, 2018

Why the Iranian Opposition’s Bet on Trump May Fail

By Maysam Behravesh

Much of the Iranian opposition abroad is thrilled with anticipation these days. It is looking forward to the resumption of US secondary sanctions against Iran’s oil industry and Central Bank on November 5, and the hard blow the Iranian economy is expected to take as a result. The opposition, along with some key members of […]

Iran
German Chancellor Angela Merkel

New Atlanticist

Oct 29, 2018

Angela Merkel will not seek re-election as Germany’s chancellor in 2021

By Ashish Kumar Sen

"While one should never underestimate Merkel, it may be time to start thinking about her political obituary," said Atlantic Council distinguished fellow, Fran Burwell.

Elections Germany
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