Nuclear Nonproliferation

FAST THINKING: What’s Iran thinking?

By Atlantic Council

Tehran seized a South Korean tanker while also announcing that it had begun increasing its uranium enrichment levels to 20 percent. Why?

Can Bibi and Biden get along?

Few world leaders have been as close to Donald Trump as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pushed policies—from suspected covert attacks against Iran to expanded settlements in the West Bank—that will likely antagonize the US president-elect.

The top ten risks and opportunities for 2021

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

COVID-19, the kind of “grey swan” event that is predicted but never pinpointed in time, finally came calling in 2020. Drawing on years of foresight experience at the US National Intelligence Council, we are assessing the top 10 risks and opportunities in the new year, for the US in particular, but with global implications.

Biden’s best chance for Mideast gains: go slow on Iran and build fast off the Abraham Accords

By Frederick Kempe

Imagine President-elect Biden standing before two doors that represent the Middle Eastern quandary he faces. One door is marked “Return to Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal.” The other is labeled “Build Upon Trump’s Abraham Accords.” As it is with most of these tales, there are perils in both paths.

A pre-emptive strike on Iran would throw world into chaos

By Harlan Ullman

A strike to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities would be extraordinarily complex in every dimension, risky, and unlikely to guarantee that Iran will be unable to build a weapon for a lengthy period of time.

FAST THINKING: Iran sends a message

By Atlantic Council

Now we know how Iran will respond to the assassination of its top nuclear scientist: with an ultimatum to the Biden administration. Tehran enacted a law today to immediately ramp up uranium enrichment—and to expel international nuclear inspectors if US sanctions aren’t lifted by early February, right after Joe Biden takes office. What does the move mean?