Security & Defense

Global Foresight 2025

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our team of next-generation scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2025 and beyond. And our foresight practitioners imagine three different scenarios for the next decade.

Three worlds in 2035: Imagining scenarios for how the world could be transformed over the next decade

2024 was marked by increased climate shocks and collaboration of autocratic adversaries. What will the world look like in the next decade? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting three different scenarios for the future.

The Global Foresight 2025 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Can Russia be held accountable for the crime of aggression in Ukraine?

By Kristina Hook

In early February, a coalition of 37 countries announced “significant progress” toward the establishment of a special tribunal for the international crime of aggression against Ukraine, writes Kristina Hook.

How Ukraine’s shadow army fights back against the Russian occupation

By Omar Ashour

Ukraine’s resistance movement has evolved significantly in the eleven years since the onset of Russian military aggression, with a dramatic escalation following the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, writes Omar Ashour.

To safeguard the Arctic, Trump should work with Denmark and Greenland

By Jeppe Kofod

A former Danish foreign minister explains why Greenland matters to Denmark and what the best way forward is to ensure security.

Now is Europe’s moment for decisive action on Ukraine

By Léonie Allard, Ian Brzezinski

Make Trump an offer he can’t refuse: European allies should propose deploying troops in Ukraine.

What to know about Jordanian King Abdullah’s visit to Washington

By Ahmad Sharawi

During his visit, King Abdullah will likely warn Trump that his resettlement idea will destabilize the Middle East, jeopardize Jordan’s peace with Israel, and even threaten the kingdom’s stability.

Toplines: The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

The "toplines" from Markus Garlauskus' report on two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security.

Is Israel laying the groundwork to stay in Lebanon and defy a second withdrawal deadline?

By Nicholas Blanford

After missing one deadline to pull its forces out of south Lebanon following a ceasefire, there are signs that Israel is establishing a more permanent presence.