Assumptions and hypotheticals: Second edition

Issue Brief Mar 21, 2025

To win the AI race, the US needs an all-of-the-above energy strategy

By Joseph Webster

To ensure US AI leadership, the United States must harness all forms of energy, allow a level playing field, and remove red tape constraining the buildout of critical enablers, especially transmission lines and grid enhancing technologies.
Artificial Intelligence China
Assumptions and hypotheticals: Second edition

MENASource Feb 26, 2025

How the Houthis’ strikes on US MQ-9 Reaper drones serve a wider regional agenda

By Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco

The United States needs to adjust its drone deployment strategy to ensure that MQ-9 Reapers are less vulnerable to the militant group’s attacks. 
Defense Policy Defense Technologies
Assumptions and hypotheticals: Second edition

New Atlanticist Feb 18, 2025

What’s missing from the AI debate? Patience.

By Trey Herr

The AI sector is evolving quickly, fueled by a self-reinforcing cycle of investment, commentary, and ambition. In this race for compute, patience is important to sorting out sustainable innovation from speculative excess.
Artificial Intelligence Defense Technologies

Democracy & Tech Initiative

The DFRLab’s Democracy & Tech Initiative creates policy practices that align global stakeholders toward tech and governance that reinforces, rather than undermines, open societies. This initiative builds on the DFRLab’s leadership in the OSINT field, empowering global communities to promote transparency and accountability.

Explore the program

Content

Tech at the Leading Edge

Sep 22, 2022

Assumptions and hypotheticals: Second edition

By Emma Schroeder

In the second "Assumptions and Hypotheticals," we explore various topics, including the cyber sovereignty debate, the question of an attribution threshold, and the utility of cyber tools in crisis escalation.

Cybersecurity

UkraineAlert

Sep 20, 2022

Weaponizing education: Russia targets schoolchildren in occupied Ukraine

By Oleksandr Pankieiev

The Kremlin is attempting to impose the russification of Ukrainian schoolchildren in occupied areas as part of Moscow's campaign to extinguish Ukrainian statehood and eradicate all traces of Ukrainian national identity.

Civil Society Conflict

Automating the fight

Sep 20, 2022

Is cutting-edge military tech really cheaper than manpower?

By Daniel Vardiman

Automation won't necessarily lower the military budget—but it will lead to increased readiness and a more effective force.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Conflict, Risk, and Tech

Sep 19, 2022

Untangling the Russian web: Spies, proxies, and spectrums of Russian cyber behavior 

By Justin Sherman

This issue brief analyzes the range of Russian government’s involvement with different actors in the large, complex, and often opaque cyber web, as well as the risks and benefits the Kremlin perceives or gets from leveraging actors in this group. The issue brief concludes with three takeaways and actions for policymakers in the United States, as well as in allied and partner countries.

Cybersecurity Russia
Ukrainian police patrol the town of Izyum, recently liberated by Ukrainian Armed Forces, September 14, 2022. (Source: Reuters/Gleb Garanich)

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2022

Russian War Report: Ukraine secures new territory as Prigozhin recruits Russian prisoners 

By Digital Forensic Research Lab

As Ukraine recaptures its territory, Russia attempts to recruit convicts. Elsewhere, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan renews and hundreds of civilians are found dead in Izyum.

Conflict Disinformation

Blog Post

Sep 15, 2022

Policy hackers take Vegas

By Will Loomis, Safa Shahwan Edwards, Trey Herr, Stewart Scott, and Sarah Powazek

Every year, in the early August heat, thousands of hackers from around the world head to Las Vegas, Nevada for a series of cybersecurity conferences known as Hacker Summer Camp. This year, the Cyber Statecraft Initiative – and a few friends – decided to ship out to see what all the hype is about.

Cybersecurity

Issue Brief

Sep 15, 2022

Democratic institutional strength before and beyond elections: The case of Brazil 

By Valentina Sader

Brazil—Latin America’s largest economy and the fourth-largest democracy in the world—will elect its next president, governors, congress, and state-level assemblies in October 2022. This is one of the most momentous elections in recent years, a result of the inflection point that Brazil faces.

Americas Brazil

UkraineAlert

Sep 15, 2022

Putin’s self-defeating invasion turns southern Ukrainians away from Russia

By Michael Druckman

Putin framed his Ukraine invasion as a crusade to rescue Russian-speaking Ukrainians but polling data indicates that the war has turned traditionally Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine decisively against the Kremlin.

Civil Society Conflict

Event Recap

Sep 14, 2022

Outer space has reached a “tipping point” as activity outpaces space traffic management

By Aidan Poling

A panel of space experts discuss how the US government can encourage the long-term sustainable use of space by establishing a framework for space traffic management.

Defense Industry Defense Technologies

UkraineAlert

Sep 14, 2022

The complex reality behind Vladimir Putin’s nuclear blackmail in Ukraine

By Suriya Evans-Pritchard Jayanti

Putin's recent efforts to blackmail European leaders by threatening a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Ukraine reflect Russia's use of fear and energy as foreign policy tools.

Conflict Disinformation
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Experts

Fellow

Evi Fuelle

Nonresident Senior Fellow

GeoTech Center

Digital Policy Economy & Business

Expert bio

Newton Howard

Nonresident Senior Fellow, N7 Initiative

Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs

Artificial Intelligence English

European Leadership Accelerator Participant

Inês Bravo Figueiredo

Co-President, Volt Portugal

Millennium Leadership Program

Central Europe Economy & Business

Fellow

Trevor H. Rudolph

Nonresident Senior Fellow

GeoTech Center

Cybersecurity Europe & Eurasia

European Leadership Accelerator Participant

Martin-Sebastian Abel

Co-Founder & Managing Director, TransitionPlan

Millennium Leadership Program

Central Europe Economy & Business

Fellow

Reem Goussous

Nonresident senior fellow

Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

Americas Arabic
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Events

Public Event Thu, May 8, 2025 • 9:30 am ET

General John Raymond on national security and the future of space commerce

An #ACFRONTPAGE EVENT—Raymond, who served as the first chief of space operations of the US Space Force, talks about maintaining the US military edge as the space domain becomes increasingly contested and congested.

Space Space Security Technology & Innovation United States and Canada