Middle East Programs Commentary & Analysis

Our blogs feature thoughtful reflections and opinions on current events in the Middle East & North Africa.

Through our Middle East Programs, the Atlantic Council works with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region.

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Meet our blogs

MENASource

MENASource follows movements across the region and provides news and analysis on current events, including a platform for Middle Eastern perspectives, among others, on major issues—economic, political, security, cultural—that are at stake in the post-Arab Spring era.  

IranSource

IranSource provides a holistic look at Iran’s internal dynamics, global and regional policies, and posture through unique analysis of current events and long-term, strategic issues related to Iran.

All commentary & analysis

New Atlanticist

Jan 9, 2020

Democratic lawmakers criticize Trump administration policy after Soleimani targeting

By David A. Wemer

“This entire escalatory lead up,” Murphy contended, “was all an exercise of choice.” While both Democratic lawmakers conceded that Soleimani—who led the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force—was an enemy of the United States and responsible for the deaths of US soldiers, they called into question the administration’s decision to target Soleimani on Iraqi soil and at a moment of such high tensions in the region.

Conflict Iran

MENASource

Jan 9, 2020

Qasem Soleimani and escalatory parity

By Frederic C. Hof

For the better part of forty years, American action and inaction have persuaded the Islamic Republic that it could act with impunity; that the United States feared the escalatory implications of push-back. That dangerous, destabilizing belief seems to have been suspended with the killing of Soleimani.

Iran Politics & Diplomacy

MENASource

Jan 8, 2020

The context of today’s Libyan crisis and what to watch for

By Karim Mezran, Emily Burchfield

On April 4, 2019, troops led by Khalifa Haftar, a former general of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi who now contests the authority of the UN-sponsored Government of National Accord (GNA) seated in Tripoli, launched an attack against the Libyan capital. The real reasons for staging such an attack on that specific day are still unclear.

Libya Politics & Diplomacy

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

De-escalation still possible after Iran’s missile retaliation

By Atlantic Council

Iran avoided a central US red line, and "therefore, the Trump administration will have the opportunity to test Iranian claims that they truly do not seek any further escalation," Will Wechsler says.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Iran’s missiles may have avoided the worst outcome

By Thomas S. Warrick

If there had been significant US casualties, the world would have awoken to the dawn of a regional war, because the Trump administration would have been compelled to attack the launch sites in Iran—and probably other targets in Iran, also. If the present news holds, the situation is slightly less dangerous, if still perilous.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Washington and Tehran can step back – if they want to

By William F. Wechsler

After the January 8 Iranian missile attacks on Iraq, a successful tactical de-escalation requires both that the Iranian leadership intends for its military actions not to be escalatory and that the Trump administration perceives those actions as they were intended. In the absence of direct communications between the United States and Iran, however, the potential for misunderstanding and thus the risk of miscalculation remains high.

Conflict Geopolitics & Energy Security

MENASource

Jan 7, 2020

Israelis questioning US’ Middle East strategy after Soleimani strike

By Shalom Lipner

Of still greater consequence is what Trump resolves to do, or not do, in the weeks and months ahead. Israel and other Middle Eastern states have long entreated the US, with its advanced capabilities and global footprint, to lead the effort to bring Iran to heel.

Israel Politics & Diplomacy

New Atlanticist

Jan 6, 2020

Shaping the global future together: the Council’s “Top fifteen hits” of 2019

By Frederick Kempe

We look back at the Atlantic Council's top work of 2019 galvanizing US leadership alongside partners and allies to tackle the most pressing challenges confronting our nation and our world.

Africa Americas

MENASource

Jan 6, 2020

China’s response to the Soleimani killing

By Jonathan Fulton

Anything that affects the Gulf states’ ability to get energy to market hurts China’s economy, which in turn erodes the performance legitimacy model of the Chinese Communist Party.

China Iraq

MENASource

Jan 6, 2020

By killing Soleimani, the United States destroyed its relationship with Iraq

By Abbas Kadhim

The Iraqi parliament vote to remove US troops confirms that if Iraqis are cornered and forced to choose between the United States and Iran, they will find it safer to choose Iran.

Iran Iraq
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