Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Report Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?
Arms Control China
Nuclear strategy project

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.
China Missile Defense
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.
China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Jun 16, 2021

Are dual-capable weapon systems destabilizing? Questioning nuclear-conventional entanglement and inadvertent escalation

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Some fear that nuclear-conventional entanglement–the use of the same weapons or sensors for nuclear and conventional weapons–could lead to nuclear war. Are they right? This issue brief argues that fears of entanglement leading to nuclear war are misplaced and rest on poor logical and empirical foundations.

China Conflict

Issue Brief

Mar 29, 2021

The downsides of downsizing: Why the United States needs four hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

The United States is at a nuclear modernization crossroads. Critics of the land leg of the nuclear triad believe that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force of 300 missiles will be cheaper and more stable than a force of 400. This issue brief shows that 400 ICBMs support the goals of US nuclear deterrence and are affordable.

China Defense Policy

Report

Mar 1, 2021

Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance

By Barry Pavel, Miyeon Oh, Robert Dohner, Alexander Vershbow, Markus Garlauskas, Todd Rosenblum

In a rapidly changing environment, the US and ROK must develop an integrated strategic vision for security in the Indo-Pacific, innovative approaches to denuclearization, and responses to a rising China.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Mar 1, 2021

A primer on the proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities

By Winnona DeSombre, Michele Campobasso, Dr. Luca Allodi, Dr. James Shires, JD Work, Robert Morgus, Patrick Howell O’Neill, and Dr. Trey Herr

Offensive cyber capabilities run the gamut from sophisticated, long-term disruptions of physical infrastructure to malware used to target human rights journalists. As these capabilities continue to proliferate with increasing complexity and to new types of actors, the imperative to slow and counter their spread only strengthens.

Arms Control Conflict

Issue Brief

Feb 4, 2021

Toward trilateral arms control: Options for bringing China into the fold

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

The Cold War-era paradigm of bilateral arms control between the United States and Russia is becoming increasingly untenable. Including a rising China with a growing nuclear arsenal is essential. This issue brief shows the way forward with options for bringing China into the nuclear arms control fold on a trilateral basis with the United States and Russia.

Arms Control China
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Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.
Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.
Defense Policy National Security
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran

New Atlanticist

Jun 12, 2025

Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran’s military and nuclear sites. What’s next?

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.

Conflict Defense Policy

New Atlanticist

Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.

Defense Policy National Security
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Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence
China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 am ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
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In the news

In the News

Mar 25, 2026

Wilkening quoted in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum on hypersonic threats

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow Dean Wilkening was quoted in an Indo-Pacific Defense Forum article, titled “Indo-Pacific allies join to counter hypersonic threats.” Wilkening discussed the impacts of hypersonic capabilities on air and missile defense systems, highlighting the capability enhancements needed to counter these threats.

Defense Technologies Indo-Pacific

In the News

Mar 16, 2026

Costa in the Washington Post on military readiness in Iran

By Atlantic Council

On March 16, Forward Defense Director Joe Costa published an article in the Washington Post on the impacts of the war in Iran on US military readiness. Writing alongside Ely Ratner of the Marathon Initiative, Costa argues that the threat to readiness runs deeper than depleted stockpiles—deferred maintenance, equipment cannibalization, and broken dwell-to-deploy thresholds threaten […]

China Defense Policy

In the News

Mar 12, 2026

Costa quoted in AFP article on US interceptor stocks in the conflict with Iran

By Atlantic Council

On March 2, Forward Defense director Joe Costa was quoted in an AFP article on US air defense interceptor stocks. Costa cautioned that a sustained conflict with Iran could impact the availability of these capabilities for other global priorities.

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

In the News

Mar 4, 2026

Costa quoted in The Hill article on resource strains and the conflict in Iran

By Atlantic Council

On March 4, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Forward Defense Program Joe Costa was quoted in an article from The Hill on US interceptor capacity. Costa described the high attrition rate for key missile defense capabilities in the conflict in Iran and expressed concern over the strain to resources as the conflict progresses.

Defense Technologies Iran

In the News

Feb 18, 2026

Kroenig interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting on the expiration of New START

By Atlantic Council

On February 13, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting about the expiration of New START and implications for the US and its allies.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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