Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

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Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Report Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?
Arms Control China
Nuclear strategy project

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.
China Missile Defense
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.
China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Nov 30, 2021

Forward Defense symposium on deterring Chinese strategic attack

By Hans Binnendijk, Rebeccah Heinrichs, and Christopher Twomey

Hans Binnendijk, Rebeccah Heinrichs, and Christopher Twomey contribute issue briefs to a Forward Defense symposium on Chinese nuclear weapons and deterring Chinese strategic attack.

China Defense Policy

Assumptions Testing Series

Nov 3, 2021

Assumption #3: US leadership is indispensable to the health of the global order

By Christopher Preble

Experts often assume that US power is essential to global peace and prosperity, but need to question what role the United States can play in the global system among partners and allies.

Human Rights National Security

Report

Nov 2, 2021

Deterring Chinese strategic attack: Grappling with the implications of China’s strategic forces buildup

By Matthew Kroenig

To counter the increasing threat from China’s assertive foreign policy and growing nuclear capabilities, Matthew Kroenig outlines a strategy for Washington and allies to reliably deter Chinese strategic attack.

China Cybersecurity

Issue Brief

Sep 23, 2021

The special role of US nuclear weapons

By Matthew Kroenig

The United States needs to maintain a robust, flexible, and modernized nuclear deterrent. That means that United States needs to continue with nuclear modernization, reject a no first use (NFU) policy, and examine further nuclear capabilities.

China Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Jun 16, 2021

Are dual-capable weapon systems destabilizing? Questioning nuclear-conventional entanglement and inadvertent escalation

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa

Some fear that nuclear-conventional entanglement–the use of the same weapons or sensors for nuclear and conventional weapons–could lead to nuclear war. Are they right? This issue brief argues that fears of entanglement leading to nuclear war are misplaced and rest on poor logical and empirical foundations.

China Conflict
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Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.
Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.
Defense Policy National Security
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

Fast Thinking

Jul 22, 2026

What to know about the new US-Saudi nuclear deal

By Atlantic Council

The reported deal with Riyadh would send US nuclear technology, material, and equipment to the kingdom—raising the issue of nonproliferation.

Iran Nuclear Energy

Dispatches

Jul 22, 2026

Experts react: Reading between the lines of the new US-Saudi nuclear agreement

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts share their insights on the reported deal, under which the US would send nuclear technology, material, and equipment to the kingdom.

Iran Nuclear Energy

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran
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Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence
China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 am ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
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In the news

In the News

Sep 9, 2026

Woolf in Orbis on the role of nuclear norms in an era of renewed competition

By Atlantic Council

On July 20, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow Amy Woolf published an article in Orbis titled “Nuclear Norms in an Era of Renewed Nuclear Competition.” She highlights that the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2026 has left nuclear weapons states without formal systems that reduce the risk of […]

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

May 18, 2026

Marine published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on trilateral arms control

By Atlantic Council

On May 13, Forward Defense Associate Director and Resident Fellow Alyxandra Marine co-authored an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, arguing that the United States should pursue trilateral arms-control arrangements with Russia and China. While near-term agreement is unlikely, Marine and her co-author, Matthew Kroenig, contend that negotiations could still advance US strategic […]

Arms Control China

In the News

May 18, 2026

Kroenig and Marine published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

By Atlantic Council

On May 13, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig and Forward Defense associate director and resident fellow Alyxandra Marine published a piece in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, arguing that Washington should pursue trilateral arms control.

China Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

May 11, 2026

Kroenig published in Foreign Policy on Iran’s uranium enrichment

By Atlantic Council

On May 11, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig published an article in Foreign Policy, arguing that Iran does not have a right to enrich uranium and that Trump should push for zero enrichment in perpetuity as part of any deal with Tehran.

Iran Nuclear Nonproliferation

In the News

Mar 25, 2026

Wilkening quoted in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum on hypersonic threats

By Atlantic Council

On March 25, Forward Defense nonresident senior fellow Dean Wilkening was quoted in an Indo-Pacific Defense Forum article, titled “Indo-Pacific allies join to counter hypersonic threats.” Wilkening discussed the impacts of hypersonic capabilities on air and missile defense systems, highlighting the capability enhancements needed to counter these threats.

Defense Technologies Indo-Pacific
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Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

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