Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

The Scowcroft Center’s namesake, General Brent Scowcroft, was the chairman of the 1983 Scowcroft Commission that established the foundation for US nuclear deterrence and arms control policy through the present day. As the United States enters a new era of strategic challenges, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces strategy and policy for the twenty-first century.

The 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review caution that the United States will, for the first time in its history, face the challenge of simultaneously deterring two nuclear great powers, each with aggressive revisionist goals. Our Nuclear Strategy Project, within the Forward Defense program, focuses on the role of nuclear deterrence, nuclear strategy and employment, missile defense, and arms control in deterring conventional aggression and nuclear escalation against the United States, its allies, and partners.

Download our Brochure

Principal research areas

Nuclear strategy

Shape US nuclear strategy and implications for extended deterrence, allied assurance, and nuclear escalation. Inform the national and/or international debate concerning potential changes in nuclear strategy and nuclear force structure. Assess the changing requirements for extended deterrence and assurance of allies under nuclear triploarity.

Arms control

Understand and shape the changing nature of and role for arms control in the new trilateral security environment. Assess the relationship between US nuclear deterrence requirements and nuclear arms control to inform US negotiating positions for a potential future arms control framework.

Missile defense

Shape the relationship between homeland missile defense and US nuclear strategy as it relates to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Anticipate and inform the national and international debate on new technologies for missile defense and its implications for strategic stability.

Emerging threats

Assess the implications of new threats and technologies for US nuclear deterrence and strategy. Understand and assess which threats have the greatest potential for affecting the military balance and nuclear deterrence.

Must Reads

Report

Jan 4, 2025

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

China Defense Technologies

Reports & issue briefs

Nuclear strategy project

Report Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry “Trey” Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?
Arms Control China
Nuclear strategy project

Report Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.
China Missile Defense
Nuclear strategy project

Issue Brief Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.
China Missile Defense

Report

Sep 8, 2026

Preparing for and countering limited nuclear attacks in East Asia: Guardian Tiger III

By Markus Garlauskas with John Park and Kyoko Imai. Contributors: Andrew Brown and Jonathan Corrado

The risk of North Korea launching a limited nuclear attack will likely increase over the coming decade. The United States and its allies are not preparing adequately to deter and prevail in the face of such nuclear strikes.

Indo-Pacific Korea

Issue Brief

Jun 18, 2026

The case for a US Northeast Asia Command

By Christopher Lee, Ben Blane, and Markus Garlauskas

To maximize its deterrent and warfighting effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States must reform its military command-and-control structure in Northeast Asia.

Arms Control East Asia

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

For homeland missile defense, think Golden Zones, not a Golden Dome 

By Ankit Panda

While the second Trump administration correctly diagnoses a more dangerous nuclear environment facing the country, a comprehensive defensive system is the wrong prescription. The risks of prompting adversary proliferation and stretching US resources thin are too high.

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Issue Brief

May 21, 2026

Golden Dome is the missile defense the US needs

By Henry “Trey” Obering

The United States should pursue a comprehensive missile defense system to protect the homeland from advanced threats posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. Political will from the Trump administration and advances in technology make the idea of the long-discussed "dome" over the United States more feasible now than ever.

Missile Defense Security & Defense

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Load More

Commentary & quick analysis

Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 11, 2025

Many nuclear experts agree that the US needs new capabilities. Now they need to convince the Pentagon.

By Paul Amato

Even as nuclear experts move toward a consensus on what the United States needs, they will need to make their case to a wider set of US decision makers.
Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Jun 6, 2025

Ukraine’s drone strikes offer four big lessons for US nuclear strategists

By Mark J. Massa

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb should spur the US government to address strategic vulnerabilities that nuclear strategists have focused on for years.
Defense Policy National Security
Nuclear strategy project

New Atlanticist Apr 11, 2024

Is the United States falling behind the North Korean ICBM threat? Congress needs answers.

By Robert Soofer

Washington must not wait until Pyongyang is regularly test-launching ICBMs with multiple re-entry vehicles and countermeasures to improve US defenses.
Defense Technologies Korea

Fast Thinking

Jul 22, 2026

What to know about the new US-Saudi nuclear deal

By Atlantic Council

The reported deal with Riyadh would send US nuclear technology, material, and equipment to the kingdom—raising the issue of nonproliferation.

Iran Nuclear Energy

Dispatches

Jul 22, 2026

Experts react: Reading between the lines of the new US-Saudi nuclear agreement

By Atlantic Council experts

Our experts share their insights on the reported deal, under which the US would send nuclear technology, material, and equipment to the kingdom.

Iran Nuclear Energy

New Atlanticist

Sep 16, 2025

NATO has a gap in its airborne command and control. Here’s how to close it.

By David Julazadeh

As E-3 AWACS aircraft retire, and with new doubts about and delays with the E-7A aircraft set to replace them, the Alliance must take additional steps bridge the gap.

Europe & Eurasia NATO

New Atlanticist

Aug 26, 2025

Five questions (and expert answers) about where the US-South Korea alliance goes from here

By Atlantic Council experts

The US and South Korean presidents met on Monday in Washington to discuss a range of bilateral issues, from security to shipbuilding.

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

Fast Thinking

Jun 22, 2025

How will Iran respond to US strikes on its nuclear program?

By Atlantic Council

Following the US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s foreign minister said his country must respond. Atlantic Council experts look at Tehran’s options.

Conflict Iran
Load More

Past events

Online Event Thu, June 5, 2025 • 3:00 pm ET

General Thomas Bussiere on Global Strike Command’s role in strategic deterrence
China Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence Russia

Transcript

Nov 28, 2023

Our experts explain what US policymakers should know about deterring Russia’s and China’s nuclear threats

The fellows of Forward Defense’s Nuclear Strategy Project met at a roundtable to discuss how to deter nuclear powers Russia and China from expanding their capabilities and from giving nuclear weapons a greater role in Moscow's and Beijing's defense strategies.

China East Asia
Public Event Fri, October 20, 2023 • 11:00 am ET

A strategic posture for a new era: Introducing the Congressional Strategic Posture report
Arms Control China Defense Policy Iran

Transcript

Nov 3, 2022

What’s the future of US nuclear strategy? Top officials dissect the Biden administration’s plans.

Current and former Department of Defense, State, and Energy officials outline the top takeaways from the new NPR at the Atlantic Council.

China Nuclear Deterrence
Public Event Tue, November 1, 2022 • 2:00 am ET

The future of US nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
China Defense Policy Defense Technologies Iran
Load More

In the news

In the News

Jan 21, 2022

Manning in StratNews Global: China, North Korea, Russia-Ukraine, Security Top Of Japan-U.S. Talks

By Atlantic Council

On January 21, Manning featured on a panel on StratNews Global about the North Korean nuclear program, China’s growing military assertiveness, and other topics. The panelists discussed issues such as Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s first formal talks, new developments in North Korea’s nuclear program, China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, the situation […]

China East Asia

In the News

Jan 21, 2022

Manning in The Hill: Kim Jong Un won’t be ignored: What North Korean missile tests mean

By Atlantic Council

On January 21, Robert Manning published an op-ed in The Hill on recent North Korean missile tests and the message it sends the US about Kim Jong-un’s continued leverage. “This full-spectrum nuclear arsenal appears an effort to achieve a survivable nuclear triad with its estimated 20-50 nuclear weapons, perhaps altering the military balance. In fact, […]

Korea Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Jan 20, 2022

Manning in RFA: North Korea likely to launch ICBM to pressure the US soon [translated from Korean]

By Atlantic Council

On January 20, Manning was quoted in an RFA article about North Korea’s missile tests and the messages they send to the United States and its allies. “Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the US Atlantic Council, told RFA on the 20th that North Korea has been using tactics to obtain concessions in its nuclear negotiations with the US […]

Arms Control Indo-Pacific

In the News

Jan 20, 2022

Garlauskas quoted in Politico on the Biden administration’s North Korea policy

On January 20, 2022, Markus Garlauskas was quoted in a Politico article that discussed and evaluated the Biden administration’s policy towards North Korea. Garlauskas highlighted Pyongyang’s intentions to resume ICBM launch testing, stating that “North Korea appears to have been trying to fully establish the right international conditions for a resumption of ICBM launches for […]

Defense Policy Indo-Pacific

In the News

Jan 18, 2022

Manning in Voice of America: North Korea launches fourth missile in two weeks… [translated from Korean]

By Atlantic Council

On January 18, Robert Manning was quoted in a Voice of America article about recent North Korean ballistic missile launches. “Former State Department policy adviser Robert Manning said North Korea’s successive missile tests put into action Chairman Kim Jong-un’s willingness to develop a wide range of nuclear weapons and missiles at a military parade a […]

East Asia Korea
Load More

Subscribe to stay engaged

Sign up for updates from Forward Defense to hear the latest on the trends, technologies, and military challenges shaping tomorrow.



  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Related experts

Fellow

Paul Amato

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence

Fellow

Hans Binnendijk

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security Transatlantic Security Initiative

Defense Policy Europe & Eurasia

Fellow

Kevin P. Chilton

Distinguished Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Cybersecurity Defense Industry

Staff

Markus Garlauskas

Director

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Crisis Management Indo-Pacific

Board director

Franklin D. Kramer

Board Director

Cybersecurity Defense Policy

Fellow

Matthew Kroenig

Senior Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Defense Policy

Fellow

Keir Lieber

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Defense Policy

Fellow

Jan M. Lodal

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Security & Defense

Staff

Alyxandra Marine

Associate Director and Resident Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Crisis Management Defense Policy

Staff

Mark J. Massa

Deputy Director

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy National Security

Fellow

James McCue

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

National Security Nuclear Deterrence

Fellow

Barry Pavel

Distinguished Fellow

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Defense Technologies

Fellow

Daryl G. Press

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Arms Control Defense Policy

Former staff

Jonathan Rosenstein

Former Assistant Director

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Israel

Fellow

Anthony J. Ruggiero

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Indo-Pacific Security Initiative

Arms Control Defense Policy

Fellow

Rachel Whitlark

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense

Defense Policy Israel

Fellow

Dean Wilkening

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Technologies Missile Defense

Fellow

Amy Woolf

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy Missile Defense

Forward Defense leads the Atlantic Council’s US and global defense programming, developing actionable recommendations for the United States and its allies and partners to compete, innovate, and navigate the rapidly evolving character of warfare. Through its work on US defense policy and force design, the military applications of advanced technology, space security, strategic deterrence, and defense industrial revitalization, it informs the strategies, policies, and capabilities that the United States will need to deter, and, if necessary, prevail in major-power conflict.

Learn more