The art of war

Warfighting eclipses the moment of battle. This report assesses the results from a series of competitive strategy wargames in order to explore how US military-modernization investments can shape adversary decisions long before the battle ever begins.

Reviewing lessons from their Agile Competition wargame series, Forward Defense Senior Fellow Benjamin Jensen and Marine Corps officer Lt Col Matthew Van Echo advance a new approach to wargaming in the era of great-power competition.

Greater insight into risk and response allow public and private sector organizations to better prepare for crisis before it happens and rerun history to stave off defeat in future. Wargames can be complex live events or low-cost simulations. They can even be the basis for major reforms to policy and doctrine, giving us much to understand about them. Shall we play a game?

Leveraging their experience on the 2020 Cyberspace Solarium Commission, Forward Defense Senior Fellow Dr. Benjamin Jensen and retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery argue that the presidential transition teams should adopt a Solarium model for conducting a comprehensive strategic assessment.

If the national security community continues to focus on immediate threats and managing current emergencies, it will never escape a cycle of crises, nor manage to impose a strategy to shape tomorrow’s environment.

Iran faces increasing pressure domestically and internationally, while simultaneously perceiving a historic opportunity to reshape regional dynamics through multiple regional conflicts. This convergence creates conditions that could lead to a strategic shock, and which warrant serious consideration.